Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Is OPEC+ Caution Supporting Brent’s Bullish Outlook?

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions and global supply disruptions are driving volatility in energy markets. Crude oil prices rose for a second session as U.S. crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels—double market expectations—due to reduced imports and rising exports.

The tightened supply outlook is compounded by broader sanctions on Russian oil, which have increased shipping costs and left major buyers scrambling for alternatives.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ remains cautious about boosting production despite recent price rallies. On the demand side, seasonal travel in India and China is expected to lift global consumption, while easing U.S. inflation may spur economic activity and energy demand.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $3.70, down 1.58% as bearish pressure intensifies. The commodity has slipped below its pivot point at $3.87, signaling a continuation of the recent downward trend. Immediate support is seen at $3.55, with a deeper level at $3.33, aligning with the 200-day EMA of $3.38. On the upside, resistance at $4.14 and $4.35 remains critical to regaining bullish momentum.

The 50-day EMA, currently at $3.83, has shifted to act as a short-term resistance, adding to the bearish sentiment. The broader trend reflects caution, with natural gas struggling to maintain upward traction amid weak demand expectations.

For traders, a sustained move above $3.87 could revive bullish sentiment, targeting $4.14. However, failure to hold current levels could deepen the decline toward the $3.33 support zone, warranting close monitoring for further weakness.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

US crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $80.07, down 0.47%, as prices hover near the pivot point at $79.09. The bullish trend remains intact above this key level, supported by the 50-day EMA at $76.35, indicating short-term strength. Immediate resistance lies at $80.68, with further upside targets at $82.14.

However, failure to hold above $79.09 could open the door for a decline toward $77.17, with deeper support at $75.40.

Traders should monitor the $79.09 pivot for directional clarity, as a sustained move above this level could reinforce bullish momentum, while a break below it may lead to increased selling pressure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UK crude oil (UKOIL) is trading at $81.99, down 0.30%, as it consolidates near the pivot point at $81.43. The price remains in a bullish channel, supported by the 50-day EMA at $78.66, indicating ongoing upward momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at $82.61, with the next target at $83.45.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $80.44, with deeper support at $79.58 if selling pressure intensifies. The market bias remains bullish above $81.43, driven by supply constraints and resilient demand expectations.

However, cautious optimism prevails as overbought conditions near resistance levels could prompt short-term pullbacks. Traders should closely watch the $81.43 pivot for directional clarity, as a move below this level could shift sentiment and invite sharper declines.