Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: NG Surges to $1.83 Resistance; Sell Now?

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Updated: Mar 18, 2024, 09:52 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Rising oil prices in Asian markets signal supply tightness and are exacerbated by attacks on Russian infrastructure.
Geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve meeting outcomes could sway interest rates, influencing demand and market forecasts.
A surge in Natural Gas prices to $1.83 suggests potential market sentiment shift, with key resistance and support levels highlighted.

Market Overview

Oil prices experienced a slight increase in Asian markets on Monday, continuing the upward trend from last week, fueled by tightening supply concerns and escalated by attacks on Russian energy facilities.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s meeting outcomes are closely watched by investors, potentially affecting interest rates and, consequently, demand.

These developments, coupled with a positive demand outlook from the International Energy Agency, suggest a nuanced impact on both Natural Gas and Oil forecasts, indicating a cautious yet optimistic market sentiment.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) prices surged by 4.38%, reaching $1.83. This significant increase brings the commodity near its pivot point of $1.85, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

Resistance levels are identified at $1.88, $1.93, and $1.99, suggesting that upward momentum may face hurdles. On the downside, support at $1.78, followed by $1.72 and $1.68, provides a cushion against declines.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.82 and the 200-Day EMA at $1.93 paint a mixed picture, implying a cautious outlook. A move above $1.85 could signal a more definitive bullish turn, whereas failure to breach this level may reinforce a bearish stance.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

On March 18, USOIL experienced a minor downtick of 0.06%, settling at $80.91. The market oscillates around a pivot point of $80.63, hinting at a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Resistance levels loom at $81.61, $82.22, and $82.84, potentially capping upward moves. Conversely, support is established at $80.04, with additional floors at $79.57 and $79.10, serving as buffers against declines.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79.45 and the 200-Day EMA at $77.71 both underscore a prevailing bullish sentiment. However, a fall below $80.63 could catalyze a significant bearish shift, underscoring a delicate balance in the current market dynamics.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

UKOIL marked an uptick, advancing by 0.42% to a price of $85.62. The asset is navigating close to its pivot point at $85.66, signaling a bullish trend if it stays above this mark. Resistance is projected at $86.43, $87.13, and $87.75, which could limit upward progression.

Support positions at $84.74, $84.21, and $83.70 provide a safety net against potential declines. The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $83.67 and $82.21 respectively, lend further credence to a bullish outlook.

However, should UKOIL fall below its pivot point, a notable shift towards a bearish trend could be triggered, highlighting the market’s current sensitivity to pivotal levels.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.