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Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Oil Supported, Bullish Bounce Ahead?
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Key Points:
- Oil prices ended the week with mixed signals, with a 4% gain offset by a Friday dip.
- Conflicting demand forecasts for 2024 create uncertainty in the oil market.
- US Federal Reserve's steady interest rates and falling rig count contribute to market uncertainty.
Oil markets concluded the previous week with mixed signals, as Brent and WTI crude saw a nearly 4% gain despite a slight dip on Friday due to weaker-than-expected US consumer sentiment data.
The decline was counterbalanced by optimistic demand forecasts for 2024 from the EIA and OPEC, although the IEA’s outlook was more cautious. Despite varying forecasts, all three major agencies anticipate a supply deficit until at least early winter.
The US Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and the decline in US active oil rigs added further uncertainty. Geopolitical factors, including Russia’s pledge to meet OPEC+ obligations and ongoing Gaza ceasefire talks, also influenced market sentiment.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural Gas (NG) prices fell on Monday, trading at $2.88, down 1.01%. The technical outlook remains bearish below the pivot point of $2.93, with immediate support at $2.86. A break below this level could trigger further declines towards $2.80 and $2.74.
The 50-day EMA currently sits at $2.96, above the 200-day EMA of $2.79, suggesting a potential bearish crossover. However, a break above the $2.93 pivot point could signal a shift in momentum, potentially driving prices towards $3.00 and $3.07.
WTI Oil Price Forecast
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) prices surged on Monday, trading at $78.44, up 0.76%. The technical outlook remains bullish above the pivot point of $78.26, with immediate resistance at $79.10 and further upside potential towards $79.84 and $80.58.
The 50-day EMA currently sits at $77.90, above the 200-day EMA of $77.37, reinforcing the bullish momentum. However, a break below $78.26 could trigger a sharp reversal, potentially leading to a decline towards $77.69 and further down to $77.20 and $76.41.
Brent Oil Price Forecast
Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) prices rose on Monday, trading at $82.56, up 0.54%. The technical outlook remains bullish above the pivot point of $82.38, with immediate resistance at $83.70 and further upside potential towards $83.99 and $84.66.
The 50-day EMA currently sits at $81.98, above the 200-day EMA of $81.62, reinforcing the bullish momentum. However, a break below $82.38 could trigger a sharp reversal, potentially leading to a decline towards $81.76 and further down to $81.19 and $80.48.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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