Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Cuts and China’s 5% Growth Target Stir Market

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Mar 5, 2024, 05:49 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Brent and WTI oil prices dip amid China's economic overhaul and a 5% growth target for 2024, raising investor skepticism.
OPEC+ production cuts aim to stabilize oil prices amidst global demand fluctuations and increased external production.
China's dual commitment to expanding oil and gas exploration and curbing fossil fuel consumption complicates market forecasts.

In this article:

Natural Gas

-2.96%

WTI Oil

-1.43%

Brent Oil

-1.51%

China’s Economic Pledges and Market Dynamics

Oil prices experienced a slight downturn, with Brent and WTI futures witnessing declines amidst China’s commitments to overhaul its economic model and manage industrial excess. Despite setting a 5% growth target for 2024, investor concerns loom over the attainability of these goals, given the comparative advantage of a COVID-impacted 2022.

China’s promise to enhance oil and natural gas exploration contrasts with its vow to regulate fossil fuel consumption, adding complexity to the demand forecast. Meanwhile, OPEC+ extends its production cuts to bolster prices amid fluctuating global demand and external production increases.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) saw a modest retreat to $1.9570, marking a 0.81% decrease. Positioned above its pivot at $1.9308, it suggests a latent bullish momentum unless it falls below this mark, potentially signaling bearish trends.

Resistance levels at $1.9871, $2.0282, and $2.0841 delineate the upcoming challenges for upward movement. Conversely, support at $1.8604, followed by $1.8016 and $1.7257, provide critical cushions against further declines.

The current setup, supported by the 50 EMA at $1.8611 and the 200 EMA at $1.9909, leans towards a bullish stance as long as prices stay above the pivot, indicating room for potential gains.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil (USOIL) recent dip to $78.45, marking a 0.30% decrease, hints at potential volatility. The pivot point at $78.86 now acts as a crucial juncture; surpassing this could tilt the scale towards bullish sentiment. Resistance levels are layered at $80.36, $81.06, and $81.80, posing challenges for upward momentum.

Conversely, support is found at $77.93, with further cushions at $77.14 and $76.25, safeguarding against a sharper decline. The break below the upward channel signals a potential downtrend.

With the 50 EMA at $78.41 closely aligning with current prices and the 200 EMA at $76.64 offering long-term support, the market appears bearish unless it reclaims positions above the pivot point.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

UKOIL‘s slight decline to $82.59, marking a 0.25% drop, points to nuanced market fluctuations. Positioned below its pivot point at $83.02, the outlook suggests potential downward pressure unless it crosses this threshold, hinting at a bullish resurgence.

Resistance levels are mapped at $83.94, $84.88, and $85.80, delineating challenges for ascending trends. Support levels at $81.70, followed by $80.65 and $79.42, serve as crucial buffers against further declines. The break below the upward channel could signal a shift towards a downtrend.

With the 50 EMA at $82.58 and the 200 EMA at $81.40 providing foundational support, the current stance appears bearish unless UKOIL reclaims ground above its pivot, suggesting a shift towards a more bullish outlook.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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