Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Cuts and Demand Trends Shape Outlook

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have injected volatility into oil markets, providing temporary price support. However, this impact is tempered by a weakening demand outlook, particularly from China, where faltering economic growth weighs on energy consumption.

Saudi Aramco’s price cuts for January 2025 and OPEC+’s extended production cuts reflect a challenging market environment, with a surplus expected next year. Meanwhile, U.S. production is rising, adding further supply-side pressure.

Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation data and China’s economic policy announcements, as both will play critical roles in shaping energy market dynamics moving forward.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are sitting at $3.11, down 2.50%, as bearish momentum dominates below the key pivot point at $3.27. The chart shows immediate resistance at $3.38, with additional hurdles at $3.45 and $3.52. On the downside, support levels are critical at $3.16, $3.07, and $3.00.

The 50-day EMA at $3.12 slightly hovers above the price, while the 200-day EMA at $3.10 offers nearby support.

This alignment signals a potential tug-of-war between short-term bearish sentiment and long-term stabilization. A break above $3.27 could invite bullish momentum, targeting higher resistance levels, while failure to hold support at $3.16 may accelerate declines toward $3.00.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading at $67.56, up 0.70%, showing a modest recovery above the key pivot point at $67.46, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Immediate resistance is at $68.03, with additional targets at $68.53 and $69.12.

However, with the 50-day EMA at $68.27 and the 200-day EMA at $68.93 sitting above the price, upward momentum could face challenges. On the downside, key support levels are $66.94, $66.51, and $66.13, providing a safety net if bearish sentiment prevails.

For now, holding above $67.46 suggests further bullish potential, but a drop below this level could spark sharper declines as selling pressure builds.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL (Brent) is trading at $71.48, up 0.68%, showing strength above the pivot point at $71.30, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Immediate resistance lies at $71.84, followed by $72.07 and $72.50.

However, with the 50-day EMA at $72.07 and the 200-day EMA at $72.71 hovering overhead, any upside movement may face resistance. On the downside, support levels at $70.83, $70.51, and $70.25 provide a cushion if bearish sentiment returns.

Holding above $71.30 keeps the outlook bullish, with potential for further gains. A break below this level, however, could signal renewed selling pressure, shifting momentum back to the bears.