Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Demand Cuts Shake Market Confidence

Market Overview

Oil prices slid nearly 3% this week amid concerns over weakening demand growth in 2025, particularly from China. Sinopec’s latest forecast suggests China’s crude imports may peak by 2025, with overall oil consumption peaking by 2027 due to declining diesel and gasoline demand.

OPEC+ has cut its 2024 demand forecast for a fifth consecutive month, while a stronger U.S. dollar and cautious Federal Reserve policies further pressured prices.

Impact on Metals: Lower oil prices may dampen inflation expectations, reducing upward pressure on gold. Silver and copper could also face headwinds as weaker oil signals slower industrial growth globally.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are currently trading at $3.34, down 0.83%, with the market showing signs of consolidation after recent fluctuations. On the 4-hour chart, the price sits slightly below its 50 EMA of $3.34, indicating near-term bearish sentiment.

Immediate support lies at $3.42, while the next key level to watch is $3.25. A break below these levels could lead to further declines.

However, on the upside, natural gas faces immediate resistance at $3.57, the pivot point. A sustained breakout above this level, combined with the formation of a triple top breakout, could propel prices toward $3.95.

 WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $69.06, down 0.14%, as the market consolidates around critical levels. The price is just below the pivot point at $69.24, with the 50 EMA at $69.59 suggesting near-term bearish momentum.

Immediate support lies at $67.87, with a deeper level at $66.97 if selling pressure intensifies. Resistance, meanwhile, stands at $70.38, with the next key level at $71.46. The RSI at 67 indicates bullish momentum, but it’s approaching overbought territory, making $69.24 a critical level to watch.

A break above could shift sentiment bullish, potentially targeting $70.38 and beyond. Conversely, failure to reclaim the pivot may result in further declines, especially if the upward trendline fails to hold.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL (Brent) is trading at $72.48, slightly below the pivot point of $72.68, signaling mild bearish momentum on the 4-hour chart. Immediate resistance is positioned at $73.77, followed by $74.55, while support rests at $71.88, with a deeper level at $70.96 if selling pressure accelerates.

The 50 EMA at $73.12 reinforces the bearish tone, suggesting the market may remain under pressure unless a decisive breakout above $72.68 occurs.

The RSI at 45 points to neutral conditions, indicating room for further downside without entering oversold territory. A break below $71.88 could signal increased selling, while reclaiming $72.68 would pave the way for a retest of $73.77.