Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output and U.S. Tariffs Drive Short-Term Setup

Market Overview

Crude oil prices held steady as markets weighed fresh U.S. tariffs targeting buyers of Venezuelan oil and the broader impact of escalating geopolitical tensions. A 25% levy on Venezuelan energy exports has amplified concerns over global supply, especially as new sanctions also target Iranian crude.

Meanwhile, Chevron’s extended deadline to wind down Venezuelan operations may delay an expected 200,000 bpd production cut. While OPEC+ plans to increase output in May, persistent trade friction and uncertain demand continue to limit investor confidence.

Natural gas and oil markets remain volatile, caught between constrained supply risks and uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is drifting slightly lower, trading near $3.95 and slipping just under its 50-day EMA at $3.99. The broader picture looks cautious, with the price still well below the 200-day EMA at $4.06.

The key level to watch here is the pivot at $4.01—staying below it keeps the short-term tone bearish. If buyers can reclaim that level, we could see a move toward resistance at $4.14, maybe even $4.26 if momentum kicks in.

But for now, pressure remains to the downside. If $3.75 gives way, it opens the door to $3.61. Until we get a clean break either way, the market’s likely to stay rangebound.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is holding steady near $69.00 after briefly testing resistance at $69.29. The price remains above both the 50-day EMA at $68.17 and the 200-day EMA at $68.03, which reinforces a short-term bullish tilt.

The key level to watch is the pivot at $68.57—staying above this zone keeps buyers in control. If momentum holds, the next upside target sits at $70.31. However, a drop below $68.57 could shift sentiment quickly and expose $67.63, with deeper support at $66.62.

Right now, the bias leans bullish, but traders should keep an eye on whether oil can maintain altitude above the pivot or risk fading back into the previous range.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading around $72.88, showing signs of stability after bouncing off the pivot point at $72.41. Price action remains supported by an upward channel on the 4-hour chart, with both the 50-day EMA at $71.95 and 200-day EMA at $71.70 reinforcing the bullish structure.

As long as UKOIL holds above $72.41, the bias stays upward with resistance at $73.68, followed by a potential move toward $74.87. On the downside, watch for support at $71.46 and $70.55 if momentum weakens.

So far, the trend remains constructive, and the channel provides a solid technical floor—keeping buyers engaged unless price breaks decisively below the pivot.