Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output Cuts and Sanctions Fuel Market Uncertainty

Market Overview

Oil prices surged for a second consecutive week, with Brent and WTI rising nearly 2%, marking their strongest gains since early 2025. Heightened geopolitical tensions and new supply restrictions fueled market uncertainty, raising bets on further price increases.

Fresh sanctions on crude exports are expected to reduce global supply by 1 million barrels per day (bpd), adding to pressure from OPEC+ production cuts. Seven OPEC+ members announced additional reductions of 189,000 to 435,000 bpd through mid-2026.

While market analysts anticipate supply constraints driving prices higher, enforcement challenges remain. The oil risk premium continues to rise as traders assess supply disruptions and policy shifts affecting global energy markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.94, down 0.15%, struggling to hold key support as bearish momentum builds. The price has dipped below the 50-day EMA at $4.08 and 200-day EMA at $4.10, reinforcing downside pressure.

The pivot point at $3.97 is crucial—staying below this level keeps the bias bearish, with immediate support at $3.75 and deeper downside potential toward $3.52 if selling accelerates.

On the upside, $4.24 remains a major hurdle, with further resistance at $4.42. A break above $3.97 could shift sentiment, triggering a short-term recovery.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude (USOIL) is trading at $68.15, down 0.05%, struggling to reclaim ground above the pivot point at $68.61. The 50-day EMA at $67.42 and 200-day EMA at $67.89 suggest that support remains intact, but downside risks persist. If $67.69 gives way, a move toward $66.57 could follow.

On the upside, resistance at $69.46 is a key level to watch—breaking above this could push prices toward $70.31, signaling renewed bullish momentum. However, unless buyers reclaim $68.61, the trend remains weak, with further consolidation likely.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $72.06, down 0.06%, as sellers maintain control below the pivot point at $72.42. The 50-day EMA at $71.15 and 200-day EMA at $71.52 provide immediate support, but if breached, oil could slide toward $71.21, with further downside at $69.88.

On the upside, resistance at $73.56 is key—any break above this level could signal a push toward $74.74, shifting momentum back to the bulls. However, with UKOIL struggling to sustain gains, the trend remains bearish unless buyers regain ground above $72.42.