Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC’s Demand Forecast Raises Hopes

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Updated: Mar 13, 2024, 09:41 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Unexpected U.S. inventory drop and OPEC's firm demand outlook push oil prices higher.
Mixed supply-demand signals and China's economic slowdown confine oil within a narrow price band.
Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions counterbalance pressures from a stronger dollar.

Oil Market Dynamics: Inventory Drops & Demand Forecasts Shape Future Trends

In Asian trading on Wednesday, oil prices saw an increase, driven by an unexpected decrease in U.S. oil inventories and OPEC’s consistent forecast of robust demand growth in the upcoming years.

Despite this positive momentum, oil prices remained confined within the $75 to $85 per barrel range due to mixed signals on supply and demand and China’s economic downturn.

The stronger dollar, influenced by higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, placed pressure on oil prices. However, ongoing disruptions in the Middle East and potential supply risks prevented significant price drops.

The American Petroleum Institute’s report of a 5.5 million barrel drop in inventories, contrary to the expected increase, indicated a temporary tightening in the U.S. oil market, though this is anticipated to be short-lived due to sluggish local fuel demand.

The Energy Information Administration’s upward revision of its oil production outlook for 2024 counterbalanced optimism from the inventory data. OPEC’s steady demand forecast and the forthcoming International Energy Administration report remain crucial for future oil market dynamics.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

Natural Gas (NG) exhibited a modest increase of 0.34%, pushing the price to $1.777. The commodity’s price movement hints at potential volatility with a pivot point established at $1.80. Resistance levels are identified at $1.90, $1.98, and $2.06, indicating areas where upward pressure may face challenges.

Conversely, support levels at $1.73, $1.68, and $1.62 offer a buffer against declines. The technical landscape, underscored by the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $1.86 and $1.96 respectively, suggests a bearish trend below $1.86.

A push above this threshold could pivot the market towards a bullish outlook, warranting close observation for future trading decisions.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

In today’s trading, USOIL experienced a slight increase of 0.07%, trading at $78.04. Positioned closely around a critical pivot point of $78.32, the commodity shows potential volatility with established resistance levels at $79.63, $80.67, and $81.65, hinting at possible upward challenges.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $77.38, $76.02, and $74.94, safeguarding against any downward pressure. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at $78.32 and $77.17 respectively, highlight a tight trading range.

This positioning suggests a bearish trend below $78.32, but crossing this threshold could signal a shift towards bullish momentum, advising traders to watch these levels closely for future movements.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

Today, UKOIL edged higher by 0.12%, marking a price of $82.4. The analysis reveals a pivotal juncture at the $81.77 pivot point, indicating a delicate balance in market sentiment. Resistance levels are set at $83.02, $84.05, and $85.11, suggesting potential hurdles for upward momentum.

Meanwhile, support is established at $81.06, $79.99, and $79.03, providing crucial cushions for declines. The proximity of the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at $82.45 and $81.72 respectively, underscores a tightly contested market space.

The trend remains bearish below the $81.77 mark, with a shift above this threshold potentially signifying a change towards bullish dynamics, urging traders to monitor these key indicators closely.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.