Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising Auto Tariffs May Boost Crude Demand Near-Term

Market Overview

Oil prices rose nearly 1% this week, driven by mounting concerns over global supply disruptions and renewed geopolitical tensions. A sharp drop in U.S. crude and fuel inventories added to upward pressure, while fresh U.S. tariff threats on Venezuelan crude buyers—combined with earlier sanctions on Iranian oil—fueled market anxiety.

India’s Reliance Industries, one of the world’s largest refiners, plans to halt Venezuelan imports, tightening supply further. Meanwhile, newly announced 25% auto tariffs could lift crude demand by delaying the transition to fuel-efficient vehicles. Despite a modest increase in U.S. energy activity, policy uncertainty and costlier infrastructure pose long-term risks.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is back under pressure, trading at around $3.83 and holding below its key pivot point at $3.95. That level’s been acting as a ceiling, and with prices slipping beneath both the 50-day EMA at $3.93 and the 200-day EMA at $4.03, the short-term tone has clearly turned cautious.

A descending trendline on the 4-hour chart reinforces that bearish tilt, with immediate support sitting at $3.80 and further downside risk toward $3.66 if momentum weakens.

On the flip side, any sustained move above $3.95 would be the first sign of buyers regaining control, opening the door to $4.06. Until then, the path of least resistance still points lower as sellers remain in charge.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude (USOIL) is trading near $69.56, holding just above its pivot point at $69.36. That level’s been a key zone this week, supported by the 50-day EMA at $69.01 and the 200-day EMA at $68.34.

The price action remains neatly tucked inside an upward-sloping channel on the 4-hour chart, signaling continued buying interest. Resistance sits ahead at $70.20, and if bulls clear that, the next ceiling to watch is $71.02.

On the downside, a break below $69.36 would raise caution, with $68.49 and $67.61 as the next support zones. For now, the bias leans bullish, but traders are watching for a decisive move to confirm the next leg higher.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading around $73.68, holding just above its pivot point at $73.53. This level is acting as a short-term floor, supported by an upward trendline that’s been guiding the price higher since mid-March.

The 50-day EMA at $72.89 and 200-day EMA at $72.06 are also lending structural support, reinforcing the bullish tone. Immediate resistance is seen at $74.91, followed by a stronger cap near $75.64. If buyers can push through these levels, momentum could accelerate.

On the flip side, a drop below $73.53 could expose downside targets at $72.46 and $71.76. As long as price holds above trend and EMAs, the outlook leans constructive.