Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Rising Supplies Cloud 2025 Outlook, Eyes on $3.14 Pivot

Market Overview

Oil prices edged lower as global demand concerns, driven by weak Chinese economic data, weighed on markets. Investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, which is expected to confirm a rate cut, potentially boosting economic growth and energy demand.

However, the outlook remains clouded by geopolitical tensions and a forecasted supply surplus of 950,000 barrels per day in 2025, led by rising output from non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S. and Brazil.

While sanctions on shadow fleet oil tankers persist, analysts suggest minimal near-term disruption, leaving energy markets vulnerable to oversupply and demand uncertainty.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices slipped to $3.06, down 0.52%, as sellers remain in control. The 4-hour chart shows key support holding near $3.01, with a pivot at $3.14 acting as a critical turning point. If prices drop below $3.14, bears could target the next support at $3.01 and possibly test $2.94.

On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $3.25, aligned with the 50 EMA, while a push above this level could open the door toward $3.35. Technical indicators reflect mixed sentiment—prices hover below the 50 EMA ($3.26) but remain supported by the 200 EMA ($3.19).

In summary, watch for a break above $3.14 to signal bullish momentum, while failure below this level keeps Natural Gas under bearish pressure.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $70.42, up 0.32%, maintaining a bullish tone above the pivot point at $69.95. The upward trendline, combined with support from the 50 EMA at $70.04 and the 200 EMA at $69.37, suggests buyers remain in control for now.

Immediate resistance sits at $71.38, and a breakout above this could propel prices toward the next key target at $72.23. On the flip side, failure to hold above $69.95 could trigger selling pressure, driving prices toward support levels at $69.11 and $68.27.

In short, watch for a sustained move above $69.95 for continued bullish momentum, while a break below may signal a shift toward a sharper selloff.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude (UKOIL) is trading at $74.05, up 0.26%, as bulls maintain control above the pivot point at $73.64. The price is riding an upward channel, supported by the 50 EMA at $73.59 and the 200 EMA at $73.02, signaling underlying strength.

Immediate resistance is at $74.55, and a sustained push above this could test the next key level at $75.35. On the downside, if prices slip below $73.64, sellers may gain momentum, dragging UKOIL toward support at $72.87 and possibly $72.02.

In short, Brent remains bullish above $73.64, with the upward channel intact. A break lower, however, could quickly shift sentiment to favor sellers.