Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Russian Cuts and UN Ceasefire; Time to Buy Oil?

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Updated: Mar 26, 2024, 10:24 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Asian trading sees oil prices rise modestly due to Russian production cuts but tempered by UN's Israel-Hamas ceasefire.
Natural Gas forecast remains bullish above $1.8080, with technical indicators suggesting a consolidation phase in the market.
WTI and Brent Oil outlooks indicate a cautious optimism, with market sentiment buoyed by supply constraints and geopolitical developments.

Market Overview

Oil prices experienced a modest increase in Asian trading on Tuesday, influenced by tighter supply forecasts due to extended production cuts in Russia. However, the UN’s ceasefire resolution between Israel and Hamas tempered these gains by promising more stability in the Middle East—a region critical to oil production and transportation.

This dynamic market response highlights the delicate balance between geopolitical events and supply disruptions in shaping the natural gas and oil forecast. The unfolding situation suggests a cautious market outlook, with the potential for rapid shifts based on international developments and OPEC+ policy decisions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Today’s technical outlook for Natural Gas (NG) shows a slight uptick of 0.28%, trading at $1.8160. The market’s pivot point is established at $1.8080, setting the stage for future price movements. Resistance levels are identified at $1.8595, $1.9035, and $1.9408, which could cap upward momentum.

On the downside, support levels are noted at $1.7788, $1.7261, and $1.6795, potentially halting declines. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1.8207 and $1.8978, respectively, suggest a consolidation phase, highlighted by a symmetrical triangle pattern.

The outlook remains bullish above $1.8080, but a dip below this critical threshold might lead to a notable sell-off.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

In today’s analysis, USOIL slightly declined by 0.03%, trading at $81.97. The technical landscape presents a pivot point at $81.41, underpinning the current market sentiment. Resistance levels are delineated at $82.93, $83.87, and $84.74, marking potential hurdles upward.

Conversely, support is found at $80.32, with further cushions at $79.39 and $78.46, indicating lower bounds for price dips. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80.98, alongside the 200-day EMA at $78.86, signals a prevailing bullish trend, reinforced by the upward trendline.

The market stance remains bullish above the $81.41 mark, with a dip below this threshold potentially triggering a significant sell-off.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI brent Price Chart

Today’s technical outlook for UKOIL reveals a minor increase of 0.01%, with the trading price at $86.12. The analysis identifies a pivotal point at $85.78, indicating the immediate direction of the market. Resistance levels are established at $86.46, $87.70, and $88.90, suggesting areas where selling pressure might intensify.

Conversely, support levels at $84.61, $83.72, and $82.95 offer potential rebounds. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85.46 and the 200-day EMA at $83.39 both support a bullish trend, further bolstered by an upward trendline, particularly above the $85.78 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.