Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Sanctions to Impact Russian and Iranian Supply

Market Overview

Energy markets are navigating a volatile landscape as geopolitical tensions, coupled with rising non-OPEC supply, shape oil and natural gas price trends. Oil prices dipped for a second session, reflecting a technical correction after last week’s rally.

Softer global economic data and weak Chinese demand are countering supply constraints stemming from sanctions on major producers.

Analysts note that while market fundamentals suggest a well-supplied outlook for 2025, tightening physical markets could limit significant downside risks.

Traders await U.S. economic data, including payroll reports, for clarity on demand prospects and interest rate policies, which remain critical in determining energy market momentum.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $3.40, down 2.27%, as the market struggles to hold above key support levels. The 4-hour chart shows bearish momentum, with immediate support at $3.35, followed by a critical level at $3.10.

On the upside, resistance lies at $3.72 (pivot point), with further challenges at $3.93 and $4.20. The 50 EMA at $3.53 suggests bearish sentiment as prices remain below this key moving average, while the 200 EMA at $3.14 offers deeper structural support.

A break above $3.72 could signal bullish recovery, but until then, downside risks dominate. Traders should watch for a decisive move at the $3.35 support or $3.72 resistance for clearer directional cues.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. crude oil (USOIL) prices are trading at $73.50, up 0.18% on the day, showing signs of sustained bullish momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals key support at $71.71, with additional protection at $70.75, near the 200 EMA at $70.45. Immediate resistance lies at $74.37, with further upside potential toward $76.15 if prices break above this level.

The pivot point at $72.87 is a critical marker, as staying above it maintains the bullish bias. The 50 EMA at $72.07 supports the upward trend, while the RSI signals moderate momentum.

A breach below $72.87 could shift sentiment, triggering sharper selling pressure toward support levels. Watch the $74.37 resistance for potential breakout cues.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil (UKOIL) is trading at $76.31, up 0.14% in the last session, maintaining its bullish stance above the $75.91 pivot point. Immediate resistance is seen at $77.46, and breaking above this level could pave the way for further gains toward $79.52.

On the downside, key support rests at $74.48, with additional safety at $72.99, aligning with the 200 EMA at $73.83.

The 50 EMA at $75.03 strengthens the bullish outlook, signaling upward momentum as long as prices hold above this mark. Traders should monitor the $75.91 pivot closely; a move below it may spark a reversal, targeting support levels.