Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Sluggish Demand from China Weighs on Market Outlook

Market Overview

Oil prices remained stable on Thursday, despite the Federal Reserve’s larger-than-expected 50 basis point interest rate cut. Typically, such cuts boost economic activity and energy demand, but concerns over a weaker U.S. labor market and slowing demand from China overshadowed the rate cut’s potential benefits.

China’s refinery output has slowed for five consecutive months, adding downward pressure on oil. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also added uncertainty to the market.

Natural gas and oil forecasts are expected to remain subdued in the near term, with only temporary price boosts anticipated.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.292, up 0.32%, as it hovers just below its pivot point at $2.31. Immediate resistance lies at $2.41, with higher targets at $2.48 and $2.55, should momentum build.

On the downside, key support is found at $2.19, with further levels at $2.13 and $2.08. The 50-day EMA at $2.29 is providing immediate support, while the 200-day EMA at $2.22 signals a stronger foundation for longer-term buyers.

A break above $2.30 could fuel further bullish momentum, but failure to hold this level may lead to renewed selling pressure, testing lower supports.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $69.94, up 1.26%, but remains below its pivot point at $70.58, indicating cautious sentiment. Immediate resistance lies at $71.88, with higher targets at $72.95 and $74.24, while key support levels are found at $68.45 and $67.17.

The 50-day EMA at $69.42 offers near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $72.49 suggests broader bearish momentum. A break above $70.60 could push oil prices higher, but failure to do so may signal further downside.

Traders should monitor the $70.60 level closely as it serves as a critical inflexion point for either continuation of the current rally or potential reversal.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is currently trading at $73.71, up 1.24%, with the price hovering above the pivot point of $72.74, indicating a potential bullish trend. Immediate resistance is at $74.24, followed by $75.70 and $77.44.

On the downside, support is seen at $71.64, with further levels at $69.91 and $68.63. The 50-day EMA at $72.79 is providing near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $75.92 signals broader resistance.

The upward channel is supporting the $72.75 level, and maintaining above this could extend the rally. However, a break below $72.75 may trigger a sharper selling trend, pushing prices lower.