Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Supply Concerns Lift Sentiment but Resistance Looms

Market Overview

Oil prices remain near one-month highs, gaining over 7% since early March, as tightening supply concerns and escalating geopolitical tensions rattle global markets. New U.S. trade restrictions targeting countries purchasing Venezuelan and Iranian oil have disrupted flows to key buyers, including China and India.

This evolving sanctions landscape has raised fears of reduced global supply, while U.S. crude stockpiles dropped 3.3 million barrels last week—far exceeding expectations.

Despite stronger U.S. demand, analysts warn that ongoing trade frictions could weigh on global growth and limit sustained price gains. BMI forecasts Brent crude to average $76 per barrel in 2025, down from $80 in 2024.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.91, slipping just below its 50-day EMA, with the broader trend showing signs of fatigue. Price action remains capped under a downward-sloping trendline, and the inability to hold above the pivot level at $3.93 keeps sellers in control.

Immediate resistance at $4.06 will be a hurdle for bulls, while further upside is unlikely unless price decisively breaks that level.

On the downside, support lies at $3.74, with deeper pressure likely to test $3.62 if the selloff accelerates. The 200-day EMA sits above at $4.02, reinforcing the bearish bias. Unless natural gas reclaims $3.93 with volume, momentum favors continued downside in the near term. Stay cautious.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is holding steady at $69.75, just above its pivot point at $69.19, signaling a cautiously bullish tone. The price is supported by both the 50 EMA at $69.27 and the 200 EMA at $68.49, with an upward channel shaping short-term momentum.

Immediate resistance sits at $70.20, and a break above could open the path to $71.02, where buyers may get more aggressive. On the flip side, a drop below $68.49 would challenge the channel support and potentially shift sentiment toward the downside.

For now, as long as oil stays above $69.19, the structure favors further upside, but the move needs a catalyst to clear overhead resistance convincingly.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $73.14, slightly lower on the day but still holding above the key pivot point at $72.96. This level aligns closely with the 50 EMA at $72.95, offering a strong layer of support alongside the 200 EMA at $72.12.

The price remains within an upward channel, suggesting that the broader structure still favors buyers.

If Brent can break above $74.14, the next upside target sits at $74.89. However, a dip below $72.33 could signal weakening momentum, potentially exposing $71.53. For now, as long as UKOIL holds above the pivot, the bulls maintain control—but momentum needs to pick up to test the upper resistance range.