Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Supply Risks vs. Weak Demand—What’s Driving Prices Now?

Market Overview

Oil prices surged on Monday amid escalating geopolitical tensions, driven by concerns over potential supply disruptions from key crude exporters. The market reacted sharply to risks affecting heavier crude grades vital for U.S. refiners, raising short-term price forecasts.

However, analysts caution that these gains may be short-lived. As global trade uncertainties persist, the outlook for fuel demand could weaken, applying downward pressure on prices in the coming quarters.

While supply risks offer immediate bullish support, long-term market stability hinges on demand recovery and production strategies from major energy producers.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) has seen a solid jump, trading at $3.3090, up 7.68%—a noticeable rally. But here’s the thing: it’s hovering just below a key pivot point at $3.322, which also aligns with the 200-EMA. This level is like a gatekeeper—if prices break above it, we could see a push towards $3.469, maybe even $3.603 if momentum holds.

However, if NG can’t clear this hurdle, expect a pullback toward immediate support at $3.161, with a deeper slide possibly testing $2.989.

Interestingly, the 50-EMA sits at $3.189, slightly below current levels, offering some cushion. The trendline resistance around $3.322 adds extra pressure. In simple terms: bullish above $3.322, bearish below. Watch for that breakout or rejection to guide the next move.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading at $73.90, down 0.20%, but the technical setup hints at something interesting. It recently broke out of a bearish channel to the upside, suggesting the downtrend might be losing steam.

The price is holding just above the pivot point at $73.49, which also aligns closely with the 50-EMA at $73.33—a key support zone. Staying above this level keeps the bullish bias intact, with immediate resistance at $75.17 and a potential move toward $76.28 if momentum builds.

However, if USOIL dips below $73.49, it could trigger sharper selling, targeting support at $72.32 and possibly $71.25. The 200-EMA at $74.27 is another hurdle for bulls. In short, bullish above $73.49, but a break below could flip the script quickly.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL is trading at $76.36, down just 0.05%, holding steady above its pivot point at $75.89. This level is key—staying above it keeps the bullish narrative alive.

The price is hovering just below the 50-EMA at $76.55, acting as immediate resistance, with the next targets at $77.03 and $78.43 if buying momentum picks up. A break above $76.55 could confirm a stronger bullish push.

However, if UKOIL slips below $75.89, we might see a sharper drop towards support at $74.94, and if that doesn’t hold, $73.73 could be next. The 200-EMA at $77.55 adds another layer of resistance above. In simple terms, bullish as long as it’s above $75.89, but caution is warranted if it dips below.