Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Triangle Breakdown in NG, Oil Holds Above Key EMAs

Market Overview

Crude oil prices edged lower Monday as ceasefire talks in Eastern Europe raised prospects of increased Russian exports, potentially easing global supply constraints. While OPEC+ reaffirmed plans to raise output by 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, the alliance is still implementing broader cuts totaling 5.85 million bpd—roughly 5.7% of global supply—to stabilize the market.

Meanwhile, fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil have lifted near-term supply risks, with shipping costs to China rising and buyers seeking alternative routes.

Traders remain cautious, balancing evolving geopolitical risks and shifting production plans, as energy markets weigh demand resilience against rising supply momentum.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is currently trading around $3.99, just below its pivot point at $4.05. On the 4-hour chart, price action has broken below a symmetrical triangle—a sign that the consolidation phase is over and sellers may be gaining control.

The 50-day EMA at $4.03 and 200-day EMA at $4.08 are both above the current price, reinforcing a bearish bias unless NG can recover above those levels.

Immediate support rests at $3.86, and if that cracks, we could see a move toward $3.75. On the flip side, a break back above $4.05 would signal buyers are back in charge.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is hovering near $68.19, essentially flat on the session, but trading above both its 50-day EMA at $67.67 and the 200-day EMA at $67.91. That crossover is worth noting—it often signals a potential shift toward bullish momentum, especially when confirmed by price holding above the pivot point at $67.63.

Immediate resistance sits at $68.60, with a move through that level opening the path toward $69.46. Support holds around $66.78, and if prices dip below there, we could see a slide toward $66.05.

For now, as long as oil stays above the key EMAs and $67.63, the short-term bias leans upward. It’s a wait-and-watch setup, but the technicals are tilting bullish.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is holding at $72.01, just above its pivot point at $71.53. It’s also trading above both the 50-day EMA at $71.45 and the 200-day EMA at $71.56—indicating a potentially bullish crossover setup. This alignment supports a near-term uptrend, as long as prices stay above that $71.53 zone.

Immediate resistance is at $72.47, and a break above could open the door to a move toward $73.36. On the downside, support at $70.72 and $69.89 could be tested if price dips below the pivot.

For now, the trend is cautiously bullish, but momentum hinges on whether Brent can stay above the EMAs and push through resistance in the next few sessions.