Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: U.S. Sanctions Drive Volatility Amid Global Demand Optimism

Market Overview

Oil prices climbed towards a fourth consecutive weekly gain, driven by heightened supply concerns and geopolitical tensions. Recent U.S. sanctions on Russian energy trade disrupted supply chains, inflating spot prices and shipping costs. Simultaneously, colder U.S. weather boosted kerosene demand, adding upward pressure.

Investors anticipate further disruptions as global markets adjust to shifting political landscapes. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following easing inflation data also provided support.

Meanwhile, China’s stronger-than-expected economic growth contrasted with a historic drop in refinery throughput, reflecting stagnant fuel demand. These factors collectively underscore the fragile balance between supply risks and demand optimism in the energy market.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $3.80, down 1.99%, as bearish sentiment dominates the market. The pivot point at $4.03 acts as a crucial threshold, with prices unable to sustain above this level. Immediate resistance is seen at $4.35, followed by a stronger level at $4.61.

On the downside, support is holding at $3.73, with a deeper safety net at $3.43 aligning with the 200-day EMA.

The 50-day EMA at $3.91 has flipped to resistance, underscoring bearish momentum in the short term. For a reversal, prices need to regain ground above the $4.03 pivot, signaling bullish potential toward $4.35. However, failure to hold support at $3.73 may accelerate declines to test $3.43.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $78.25, up 0.50%, reflecting renewed bullish momentum as prices stay above the pivot point at $77.29. Immediate resistance is seen at $80.68, with further upside targets at $82.57. On the downside, key support rests at $75.15, with deeper levels at $73.02 offering structural stability.

The 50-day EMA at $76.85 reinforces short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $72.95 highlights the broader bullish outlook. A sustained move above $77.29 could attract further buying, targeting $80.68.

Conversely, a break below the pivot may trigger selling pressure, potentially testing support at $75.15. Traders should monitor $77.29 for directional cues.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $81.56, up 0.43%, as prices hover above the pivot point at $81.43, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at $82.61, with further targets at $83.45.

On the downside, key support is positioned at $80.44, with deeper levels at $79.58 providing additional stability. The 50-day EMA at $79.53 underscores short-term strength, while the 200-day EMA at $76.05 highlights the broader uptrend. A sustained move above $81.43 could reinforce buying sentiment, targeting $82.61.

However, a break below the pivot might signal bearish correction, testing support at $80.44. Traders should closely watch $81.43 for potential directional cues.