Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will $70 Oil Hold Amid Inventory Surprises?

Market Overview

WTI crude oil held steady near $70 per barrel, buoyed by signs that OPEC+ may extend production cuts for three months, easing oversupply concerns. Geopolitical tensions, coupled with new U.S. sanctions targeting entities involved in crude oil transport, have tightened supply expectations.

However, API data showed a surprising 1.2 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, alongside notable builds in gasoline and distillates.

These mixed signals highlight the delicate balance between supply pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, keeping energy markets on edge as traders await OPEC+’s final decision.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.00, down 0.10%, as it struggles to hold momentum amid persistent selling pressure. Prices remain below the pivot point of $3.06, signaling bearish sentiment. Immediate resistance stands at $3.12, with further barriers at $3.17 and $3.24.

On the downside, support levels at $2.99 and $2.94 are in focus, with $2.90 acting as critical support for a potential rebound.

The 50-day EMA at $3.18 and the 200-day EMA at $3.11 underline the downward trend, reinforced by a “three black crows” candlestick pattern, a classic bearish signal.

Natural gas is in a vulnerable position, and a break below $2.99 could open the door for deeper losses. However, a recovery above $3.06 would shift the focus back to the upside.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL (WTI) is trading at $70.06, up 0.22% on the day, as it edges closer to testing immediate resistance at $70.21. The price is holding above the pivot point at $69.73, signaling cautious optimism. Further resistance is seen at $70.72 and $71.16, while key support lies at $69.33, followed by $68.73 and $68.30.

The 50-day EMA at $69.02 and the 200-day EMA at $69.22 indicate a mildly bullish bias. However, a double-top pattern near $70.21 highlights potential resistance, making a breakout above this level critical for continued upward momentum. Conversely, a break below $69.73 could signal renewed selling pressure, targeting lower support levels.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil (UKOIL) is trading at $73.76, up 0.18%, holding above the pivot point at $73.69. The price is approaching immediate resistance at $74.21, with further levels at $74.57 and $75.03, suggesting potential upside momentum. On the downside, support levels are seen at $73.18, $72.85, and $72.34.

The 50-day EMA at $72.74 and the 200-day EMA at $72.98 indicate a bullish trend continuation, reinforced by a recent bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. This suggests buyers are in control, but a break below $73.69 could trigger a reversal. Traders are watching closely for a breakout above $74.21 to confirm further gains.