Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will China’s Demand Slump Stall Oil’s Bullish Momentum?

Market Overview

Oil prices edged up as geopolitical tensions and supply concerns in the Middle East, particularly in Libya and Iraq, weighed on the market. Libyan production losses, potentially reaching 1 million barrels per day, and Iraq’s plans to reduce output after exceeding OPEC+ quotas, could strain global oil supplies.

However, weakened demand, especially from China, continues to offset these gains. The U.S. crude stock draw was smaller than expected, further dampening market sentiment.

These factors suggest a mixed outlook for oil and natural gas prices, with potential short-term volatility and ongoing supply-demand imbalances likely influencing future trends.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.14, consolidating just above its pivot point at $2.12 on the 2-hour chart. This level is critical; staying above it could signal further upside, with immediate resistance at $2.18, followed by stronger barriers at $2.23 and $2.28.

The 50-day EMA at $2.08 and the 200-day EMA at $2.10 provide nearby support, reinforcing the importance of holding above $2.12. If prices dip below this pivot, immediate support at $2.07 could be tested, and a sharper decline might ensue, pushing towards $2.03 or even $1.97.

Overall, the trend remains cautiously bullish above $2.12, but a break below could trigger a more aggressive selling phase.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. Oil (USOIL) is trading at $76.11, hovering below its key pivot point at $76.14 on the 4-hour chart. The price action suggests a cautious bullish outlook, especially with the 50-day EMA at $75.35 and the 200-day EMA at $75.55 providing solid support.

A recent bullish engulfing pattern adds weight to the argument for an upward move. Immediate resistance lies at $76.87, followed by $77.56 and $78.29, which could be tested if the bullish momentum holds.

However, if the price slips below $76.14, we could see a sharp pullback toward $75.22 or even lower to $74.51 and $73.79. The trend remains positive above $76.14, but caution is warranted if it breaks below.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude (UKOIL) is currently trading at $79.02, sitting just above its pivot point at $78.61 on the 4-hour chart. The price action is leaning bullish, supported by the 50-day EMA at $78.86 and the 200-day EMA at $79.21, both of which are signaling potential upside.

A recent bullish engulfing pattern further reinforces this optimistic outlook. If UKOIL continues to climb, immediate resistance is at $79.54, followed by $80.53 and $81.55, levels that could come into play if the bullish momentum persists.

However, if prices dip below the pivot at $78.61, we could see a pullback towards $77.92 or even lower to $76.98. Overall, the trend remains favorable above $78.61, but caution is advised if it breaks below.