Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Hurricane-Driven Output Cuts Lift Prices?

Market Overview

Oil prices surged on Friday, driven by production disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico caused by Hurricane Francine. Both Brent crude and WTI saw weekly gains of around 1.7% and 2%, respectively, after earlier dips in the week.

While the hurricane temporarily halted about 42% of regional oil output, the impact may be short-lived if damages are minimal.

However, global demand concerns, particularly in China and the U.S., continue to cap any sustained recovery. These disruptions and broader geopolitical tensions may also influence natural gas forecasts, reflecting uncertainty in energy markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.366, up 0.36% today, with a clear bullish sentiment as it hovers above the pivot point at $2.35. The immediate resistance level at $2.40 remains crucial. A break above this could open the doors to test the next resistance at $2.44, and potentially $2.49, signaling further upside.

However, if the price drops below $2.35, immediate support stands at $2.31, followed by deeper levels at $2.25 and $2.20, which could indicate a bearish shift. The 50-day EMA at $2.27 supports the current trend, while the 200-day EMA at $2.19 highlights longer-term support.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

The US. Oil (USOIL) is trading at $69.37, showing a modest gain of 0.26% for the session. The price is currently hovering near the pivot point at $69.50, which will be critical in determining the short-term trend.

If oil breaks above this level, we could see further upward movement, with immediate resistance at $70.70, followed by $72.00 and $73.00. However, if the price fails to sustain above $69.50, bearish sentiment could take over, with immediate support at $67.80, followed by deeper support at $66.60 and $65.20.

The 50-day EMA at $68.30 is acting as minor support, while the 200-day EMA at $71.10 will be a crucial level if the bullish momentum continues.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UK oil (UKOIL) is currently trading at $72.37, up 0.12% for the session. The price is sitting just above the pivot point at $71.88, suggesting that the market could be poised for further upward momentum. If UKOIL breaks through the immediate resistance at $73.48, the next targets will be $74.80 and $76.23, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend.

However, if the price fails to hold above $71.88, we could see a downside move toward immediate support at $70.41, with further levels at $68.65 and $67.26 providing additional support.

The 50-day EMA at $71.63 offers near-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $74.70 signals a critical resistance level for future gains.