Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Rising Geopolitical Risks Trigger New Highs?

Market Overview

Oil prices saw a pullback on Monday after last week’s sharp rise, where Brent gained 8% and WTI rose 9.1%. Concerns over oversupply and softer demand outweighed the fears of potential disruptions due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The uncertainty over a full-scale conflict has led to some technical profit-taking. While the impact on oil supply is expected to be limited due to OPEC’s spare capacity, the market remains sensitive to any escalation.

Consequently, natural gas prices may face pressure from oil’s instability, while both commodities could see heightened volatility.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading slightly lower at $2.802, testing the immediate pivot support level of $2.79. The market seems indecisive, with a series of Doji candles forming on the 4-hour chart, hinting at a potential reversal.

If NG can hold above the $2.79 support, we might see it push higher to test immediate resistance at $2.82, followed by $2.84. However, if prices break below $2.79, the downside targets could include $2.77 and $2.75.

Keep an eye on these levels, as the 50-day EMA at $2.89 remains a crucial barrier for any substantial bullish momentum. Overall, staying above $2.79 suggests a potential short-term recovery, while falling below could trigger a sell-off.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $74.08, and USOIL is holding a slight upward trend above the pivotal support level of $73.62. This support area, coupled with the 50-day EMA at $73.33, suggests continued bullish momentum in the short term.

However, the price needs to overcome immediate resistance at $74.46 to keep this trend intact. A breakout above $74.92 would open the path toward $75.53.

Conversely, should prices drop below $73.62, a steeper decline may follow, with supports at $72.93 and $72.44.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $77.64, and UKOIL is showing some strength, holding above the pivotal support level at $77.35.

This level, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $77.03, is a foundation for further upward movement.

If UKOIL can break above the immediate resistance at $77.92, it may look to test the next resistance at $78.48 and potentially $79.18.

However, if the price drops below $77.35, it could lead to a steeper decline, with support levels at $76.60 and $76.15.

For now, staying above the pivot keeps the short-term outlook bullish, but a break below it could quickly shift sentiment to bearish.