Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Rising U.S. Rig Counts Cap Price Gains?

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas markets remain highly sensitive to ongoing geopolitical developments, with investors weighing the potential for increased supply disruptions or unexpected price swings.

While negotiations aimed at resolving key conflicts could ease sanctions and boost global oil supply, analysts caution that sudden shifts in energy flows may introduce new volatility. Despite these uncertainties, stable demand forecasts provide a floor for prices, preventing steep declines.

Additionally, rising U.S. rig counts—marking the third consecutive weekly increase—suggest a potential boost in domestic production, which could offset supply concerns. Traders should remain cautious as policy shifts and market dynamics continue to evolve.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is hovering around $3.63, holding just above the key pivot point at $3.605. The 50-day EMA at $3.606 is acting as immediate support, while the 200-day EMA at $3.445 suggests a broader bullish structure remains intact.

If $3.605 holds, buyers could push prices toward $3.790, with a further breakout targeting $3.901. However, a drop below this level could trigger a selloff toward $3.490, with $3.356 as the next major support.

Momentum is neutral, but a move above resistance could spark fresh buying interest. Traders should watch for volume confirmation before committing to a direction. A clean break above $3.790 or below $3.605 will likely dictate the next big move.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $70.78, teetering right around the pivot point at $70.79. A key support zone has formed around $69.29, aligning with the double-bottom pattern, which could give bulls the upper hand.

If buyers step in, the first real test will be $71.98, with further upside potential toward $73.26 if momentum picks up.

On the downside, a drop below $70.79 could open the door for a move toward $69.29, with $68.48 acting as the next safety net. The 50-day EMA at $71.34 is capping gains for now, while the 200-day EMA at $72.43 suggests a long-term recovery remains in play. A break above $71.98 could trigger a stronger rally.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is hovering at $74.87, struggling to reclaim the pivot point at $75.16, which aligns with the 50-day EMA. A triple-bottom pattern near $74.03 suggests buyers are stepping in to defend key support, but upside momentum remains fragile.

If bulls push past $75.99, a run toward $77.26 is likely, with the 200-day EMA at $75.94 acting as an intermediate hurdle.

On the flip side, a drop below $74.03 could shift sentiment, exposing Brent to $72.96 as the next support level. The overall trend remains uncertain, with traders watching for a breakout above $75.99 or a decisive breakdown below $74.03 to dictate the next move.