Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Russia’s Production Cut Push Prices Above Resistance?

Market Overview

Oil prices rebounded nearly 2% after three weeks of losses, driven by tightening supply conditions. Russian oil production fell to 8.962 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, missing its OPEC+ quota by 16,000 bpd and fueling supply concerns.

Additionally, sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil shipments have disrupted trade flows to major importers like China and India. Meanwhile, fresh 25% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, along with 10% duties on Chinese imports, have raised fears of slower economic growth and weaker energy demand.

With the Federal Reserve delaying expected rate cuts, crude and natural gas markets remain volatile, navigating the complex interplay of supply risks and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.478, slightly down 0.06%, as it hovers near a key support level at $3.430. The market remains in a consolidation phase, but technical indicators suggest a potential breakout.

The 50-day EMA at $3.373 provides short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $3.336 reinforces a broader bullish outlook. A push above $3.579 could open the door for a move toward $3.699, but failure to hold above the pivot may trigger a slide toward $3.295.

Momentum indicators remain neutral, suggesting traders should watch for a decisive move. As long as NG holds above $3.430, the bullish structure stays intact.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $72.61, holding steady as it consolidates near a key pivot level. The 50-day EMA at $71.78 is providing short-term support, keeping the bullish momentum intact.

If oil breaks above the immediate resistance at $73.31, it could test the next key level at $74.56, signaling further upside potential.

However, failure to sustain gains above $72.61 may lead to a pullback toward $71.35, with a deeper correction likely if support at $70.39 is breached. The 200-day EMA at $72.98 remains a critical barrier for buyers.

For now, oil remains bullish above $72.61, but traders should watch for volume confirmation.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $76.20, maintaining a slight upward bias as it hovers above its pivot point at $75.90. The 50-day EMA at $75.34 is providing immediate support, reinforcing bullish momentum.

A sustained move above $77.20 could open the door for further gains toward $78.13, a key resistance level that could determine the next major trend.

On the downside, if UKOIL slips below $75.90, sellers may push the price toward $74.93, with stronger support at $74.08. The 200-day EMA at $76.31 remains a crucial technical barrier. For now, the bullish trend remains intact as long as $75.90 holds.