Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Slowing China Growth Push Prices Lower?

Market Overview

Oil prices have fluctuated in response to ongoing geopolitical tensions and slowing demand growth in China, the world’s largest oil importer. Brent and WTI crude recouped nearly 2% on Monday, following last week’s 7% drop, driven by market nervousness over potential supply disruptions.

While technical profit-taking supported gains, forecasts suggest an oversupplied market and weaker demand.

China’s recent rate cuts aim to stimulate its slowing economy, but oil demand remains soft, with uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery. Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar adds downward pressure, making oil more expensive for international buyers.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $2.75, down 0.79%, with the 4-hour chart showing some potential bearish momentum. The pivot point sits at $2.37, and this level will be crucial to watch. If prices stay below this level, we could see further downside, with immediate support at $2.29 and the next support at $2.25.

On the upside, resistance levels come in at $2.42, followed by $2.48 and $2.55. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $2.36, acting as dynamic resistance.

A double-top pattern near $2.36 could limit any upward movements, keeping pressure on prices. A break above $2.37 could shift the outlook to more bullish, while staying below this level keeps the bearish bias intact.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading around $69.84, down 0.20% on the day, with some bearish pressure lingering. The pivot point at $70.21 is key—if prices stay below this level, we could see further declines. Immediate support is at $68.50, with the next levels at $67.67 and $66.83.

On the upside, resistance stands at $71.10, $71.85, and $72.66. The 50-day EMA at $71.03 and the 200-day EMA at $71.82 are both acting as significant resistance, especially with a downward trendline near $70.20 reinforcing the bearish bias.

A break above $70.20 could change the outlook to more bullish, but as long as prices remain below this key level, the market is likely to remain under pressure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading around $74.06, up a slight 0.01%, but it’s facing some resistance. The key level to watch is $74.55—this pivot point is crucial. If prices can break above it, we might see some bullish momentum, with resistance levels at $75.32, $76.12, and $77.47.

However, if the price remains below $74.55, the outlook stays bearish, with immediate support at $72.51, followed by $71.24 and $69.89.

The 50-day EMA at $74.95 and the 200-day EMA at $75.47 are acting as barriers, keeping prices under pressure. The downward trendline also adds resistance around $74.55, making it a critical level for any potential breakout.