Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Supply Risks Drive Prices Higher This Week?

Market Overview

Oil prices remained stable in early Wednesday trading as markets assessed the implications of recent geopolitical tensions and policy shifts on supply dynamics. A newly declared national energy emergency aims to accelerate production and ease regulations, but analysts suggest its impact on investment and output may be limited in the near term.

Meanwhile, severe winter conditions have disrupted oil production in North Dakota, curbing output by up to 160,000 barrels per day. Despite supply challenges, Texas operations reported minimal disruptions.

Market participants remain cautious, balancing supply risks against evolving regulatory and geopolitical developments.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.39, down 0.90%, struggling to find footing below key levels. The $3.80 pivot point is a crucial hurdle—remaining under it keeps the bears in control. Immediate support sits at $3.59, and if prices slip further, the next cushion at $3.43 could come into play.

On the flip side, resistance at $3.91 and $4.05 pose challenges for any upside movement. With the 50-day EMA hovering at $3.88 and the 200-day at $3.75, the short-term trend leans bearish. A decisive push above $3.80 could shift momentum, but for now, caution prevails.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $75.73, down 0.16%, as it struggles to regain momentum after breaking below an upward channel, signaling a growing selling bias. The pivot point at $76.05 is a key level—staying below it suggests further downside pressure, while a break above could shift sentiment in favor of the bulls.

Immediate support is at $74.49, with stronger backing at $72.85. On the upside, resistance levels to watch are $77.68 and $79.12. The 200-day EMA at $75.29 could act as a safety net, but with the 50-day EMA above at $76.77, short-term bearish momentum remains in play.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $79.29, down 0.06%, as it continues to struggle within a downward channel, reinforcing a bearish outlook. The pivot point at $79.55 remains a crucial threshold—staying below it keeps sellers in control, while a breakout above could invite fresh buying interest.

Immediate support is at $78.43, with a deeper decline potentially finding stability around $77.26. Resistance levels to watch are $80.89 and $82.47. The 50-day EMA at $79.98 is acting as a short-term ceiling, while the 200-day EMA at $78.20 offers a key support zone. Until a break above $79.55 occurs, downside risks remain in focus.