Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Supply Surplus Cap Rising Prices?

Market Overview

Oil prices stabilized on Friday, poised for their first weekly gain since late November, supported by supply disruption fears stemming from geopolitical tensions and tightening sanctions.

Both oil and gas markets saw over 3% weekly increases, buoyed by steady demand from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, and elevated crude imports driven by restocking efforts.

The International Energy Agency revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day, citing China’s economic measures. However, a looming surplus from non-OPEC+ producers, projected at 1.5 million barrels per day, may limit further price recovery, creating a balanced yet cautious outlook for energy markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $3.27, down 0.94%, reflecting a cautious market mood. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point at $3.37 serves as a key threshold. Prices remain below the 50 EMA ($3.30), suggesting short-term bearish pressure, while the 200 EMA ($3.18) underpins broader support.

Immediate resistance is at $3.56, followed by $3.70, while support levels are set at $3.28 and $3.11.

A sustained move above $3.37 could reignite bullish momentum, targeting $3.56 and beyond. Conversely, a break below $3.28 may intensify selling toward $3.11. Traders are closely monitoring these levels as the market seeks direction amidst mixed sentiment. Remaining above $3.37 is critical to affirming any bullish recovery.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

US crude oil (USOIL) is trading at $70.06, up 0.18%, showing modest strength on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $69.86 acts as a key benchmark, with prices holding above the 50 EMA at $69.40 and the 200 EMA at $69.08, signaling a bullish bias in the short term. Immediate resistance is at $70.69, with the next hurdle at $71.46.

On the downside, support lies at $69.02, followed by a deeper level at $67.72. A break above $70.69 could pave the way for further gains, while a slip below $69.86 may pressure prices lower.

For now, holding above the pivot keeps the bullish outlook intact, though traders remain watchful for any volatility.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil (UKOIL) is trading at $73.41, up a modest 0.05%, as traders assess market momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point at $73.28 is critical, with prices maintaining a bullish bias above the 50 EMA at $72.90 and the 200 EMA at $72.25.

Immediate resistance is at $74.16, with the next barrier at $75.35. Support levels are noted at $72.40 and $71.51. Holding above $73.28 could drive further gains toward $74.16, while a break below this pivot might trigger selling pressure, potentially testing $72.40.

For now, the technical outlook leans bullish, but traders should watch closely for any shifts in momentum near key levels.