Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Supply Surplus Weigh on 2025 Price Outlook?

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas prices edged higher this week, supported by easing U.S. inflation and improved risk sentiment. However, the energy market faces contrasting pressures. While geopolitical tensions sustain price volatility, a forecasted supply surplus for 2025 tempers long-term price expectations.

The resumption of key pipeline operations in Europe alleviated immediate supply concerns, while money managers increased net-long U.S. crude positions, signaling renewed investor interest.

Despite a modest rise in U.S. rig counts, global demand uncertainty, including signals of peaking consumption in Asia, weighs heavily on the outlook.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices have broken out of an ascending triangle pattern, a classic bullish setup, signaling continued upward momentum. The pivot point at $3.775 is now acting as support, with immediate resistance at $3.989. A successful move above this level could target the next resistance at $4.262. On the downside, support is seen at $3.775, followed by $3.566.

The 50-day EMA, currently at $3.436, and the 200-day EMA at $3.160 are sloping upward, reinforcing the bullish trend. This breakout aligns with improving technical conditions, as buyers remain in control.

With this momentum, natural gas appears poised for further gains, though it’s essential to monitor the $3.775 level as a key support to maintain the uptrend.

 WTI Oil Price Forecast

Crude oil (USOIL) is consolidating near $69.81 as the market wrestles with a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling indecision. The pivot point at $69.38 offers crucial support, while immediate resistance lies at $70.48. A breakout above $70.48 could push prices toward $71.46, but failure to hold above the pivot could retest lower supports at $68.42 and $67.69.

The 50 EMA, at $69.54, has crossed above the 200 EMA ($69.42), signaling a potential uptrend, but the sideways movement within the triangle highlights caution. The broader trend hinges on a decisive breakout, either confirming bullish momentum or extending the sideways action.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL (Brent) is consolidating near $73.23, testing a key resistance zone at $73.77. The pivot point at $72.83 offers crucial support, while the 50 EMA ($73.02) and 200 EMA ($73.00) are tightly aligned, indicating a period of indecision. Immediate resistance lies at $73.77, with a break targeting $74.55. On the downside, support levels are seen at $72.83 and $71.98.

The symmetrical triangle pattern highlights a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, keeping the market in a sideways trend. The alignment of EMAs suggests consolidation may continue until a decisive breakout occurs.

For now, Brent crude appears poised for potential upward momentum if it can clear the $73.77 resistance, but failure could lead to a pullback toward lower supports.