Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will U.S. Crude Draw Trigger a Market Rally?

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions and Chinese economic policy shifts are driving volatility in natural gas and oil markets. Oil prices climbed as China’s announcement of looser monetary policy for 2025 spurred hopes for increased energy demand, with November crude imports rising 14% year-over-year. However, market gains remain tempered by uncertainty over concrete policy actions.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stocks grew by 499,000 barrels last week, with gasoline inventories rising 2.85 million barrels. Analysts predict a 900,000-barrel crude draw, underscoring fluctuating supply dynamics.

These developments highlight the complex interplay of global economic policies and geopolitical factors influencing energy markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are currently trading at $3.10, down 0.55% for the day, but the technical outlook suggests a pivotal moment. The 50-day EMA at $3.15 acts as a crucial pivot point, with bullish momentum likely above this level.

Immediate resistance is seen at $3.27, followed by $3.38, both marking potential upside targets if the upward trajectory holds. However, if prices dip below $3.15, a sharper decline toward immediate support at $3.00, and possibly $2.90, could unfold.

The RSI hints at consolidation, while the 200-day EMA at $3.12 reinforces the importance of the $3.15 threshold.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. crude oil (USOIL) prices are trading at $68.97, up 0.81%, signaling cautious optimism in the market. The pivot point at $68.82 is a critical threshold, supported by the 200-day EMA, with bullish momentum likely to extend if prices hold above this level. Immediate resistance stands at $69.62, with the next target at $70.32, marking potential gains if the uptrend continues.

On the downside, key support levels are $68.27 and $67.68. A break below $68.82 could shift momentum sharply bearish, triggering a potential test of these lower levels. With the 50-day EMA at $68.39 providing additional support, traders should monitor these levels for further clarity in price direction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading at $72.57, up 0.72%, as prices hover near the key pivot level of $72.67. The 200-day EMA at $72.58 reinforces this threshold, signaling bullish momentum as long as prices stay above it. Immediate resistance is at $73.30, with a stronger barrier at $74.16, aligning with the potential completion of a triple-top pattern.

On the downside, support lies at $71.51, followed by $70.83. A decisive break below $72.67 could shift sentiment bearish, possibly testing these support levels. Traders should watch for price consolidation near the pivot and monitor the triple-top formation for any reversal signals.