Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will U.S. Inflation Data Trigger a Market Rebound?

Market Overview

Oil prices remain near four-month highs as recent U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tightened global supply dynamics. Monday saw a 2% price surge, driven by market fears of reduced Russian exports, although analysts suggest the actual supply impact may be mitigated by alternative logistics.

Upcoming U.S. inflation data could further influence prices, as higher-than-expected figures may dampen Federal Reserve rate-cut prospects, limiting demand growth. Meanwhile, China’s reduced crude imports, coupled with uncertainty among key buyers, adds complexity to market forecasts.

Despite easing bearish pressures, analysts emphasize the need for stronger catalysts to sustain an upward trend in oil and natural gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices have slid to $3.53, down 2.43% on the day, reflecting sustained bearish momentum below the key pivot point at $4.02. Immediate resistance lies at $4.35, with a more significant hurdle at $4.56. On the downside, support is holding at $3.71, while deeper levels are seen at $3.42, coinciding with the 200-day EMA at $3.31.

The 50-day EMA at $3.73 indicates near-term resistance, as prices continue trading below this level. The bearish trend remains intact, but any break above $4.02 could open the door for recovery.

Traders should watch for further downside if prices breach $3.42, while a rebound above $4.35 could signal renewed bullish sentiment.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $78.26, down 0.58% as the market experiences a mild pullback after recent gains. The pivot point at $77.47 is critical, with prices maintaining a bullish outlook above this level. Immediate resistance stands at $79.09, followed by $80.07, both key thresholds for continued upward momentum.

On the downside, support is positioned at $76.66, with a deeper level at $75.39. The 50-day EMA at $74.95 supports the broader bullish trend, while the 200-day EMA at $71.83 underscores long-term strength.

However, with RSI suggesting overbought conditions, further selling pressure toward the pivot point could emerge. Traders should watch for a break below $77.47, which could signal a sharper correction.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $80.37, down 0.52%, as the market cools after its recent rally. The pivot point at $81.63 is a key threshold, with prices bearish below this level.

Immediate resistance is seen at $82.48, followed by $83.36, both critical for confirming a bullish reversal. On the downside, support lies at $79.38, with additional backing at $78.68.

The 50-day EMA at $77.75 suggests ongoing bullish momentum, while the 200-day EMA at $75.05 underscores a long-term uptrend. However, overbought conditions hint at the possibility of further corrective moves. A sustained break above $81.63 is required to regain bullish bias, while a fall below $79.38 could extend bearish sentiment.