Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will U.S. Manufacturing Data Ignite a Price Surge?

Market Overview

Oil and natural gas markets opened 2025 with cautious gains as geopolitical tensions and evolving economic dynamics influenced investor sentiment. China’s pledges for growth-focused policies and modest factory activity growth provided mild support for crude prices, while traders awaited key U.S. manufacturing data. U.S. oil demand hit pandemic-era highs in October, but rising global supplies and muted Chinese demand could limit price gains, as suggested by a Reuters poll forecasting oil near $70 a barrel this year.

Meanwhile, Russia’s pipeline gas export halt to Europe highlights ongoing supply challenges, underscoring the sensitivity of energy markets to global geopolitical risks.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) prices are trading at $3.46, down 1.56% for the day, reflecting bearish sentiment. The pivot point at $3.61 is a critical threshold, with immediate resistance at $3.89 and $4.20. On the downside, support levels are at $3.35 and $3.16.

Technically, the 50 EMA at $3.62 acts as a dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 200 EMA at $3.26 highlights longer-term support, providing some stability. A developing upward channel appears vulnerable to a bearish breakout, signaling potential downside risk if prices fail to reclaim $3.61.

Traders should watch for a break below $3.35, which could accelerate selling pressure toward $3.16. Conversely, a push above $3.61 might open the door for bullish momentum, targeting $3.89.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading at $71.80, inching up 0.02% in a cautious market. On the 4-hour chart, prices hover below the pivot point at $73.13, indicating bearish momentum. Immediate resistance is seen at $72.66, with a stronger barrier at $73.30. Key support lies at $71.37, followed by $70.75, which could attract buyers if bearish pressure intensifies.

Technical indicators reinforce a mixed outlook. The 50-day EMA at $70.95 signals moderate support, while the 200-day EMA at $70.01 suggests a longer-term bullish foundation. A decisive break above $73.13 could shift sentiment bullish, targeting $73.30. Conversely, failure to hold $71.37 may invite further declines, testing lower support zones.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UK Oil (UKOIL) is trading at $74.72, slipping 0.11% in the latest session. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains slightly above the pivot point at $74.48, keeping traders cautious about its next move. Immediate resistance is at $75.32, with a stronger hurdle at $76.03. On the downside, support levels are marked at $73.74 and $72.96, which could draw buying interest if bearish momentum continues.

Technical indicators show mixed signals. The 50-day EMA at $73.99 offers short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $73.36 suggests a stable longer-term outlook. A decisive break above $74.48 may ignite bullish momentum, while failure to hold above this pivot could extend declines toward key support zones.