Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will WTI Break $76 Resistance After Libyan Supply Cut?

Market Overview

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday after two days of losses, driven by supply concerns in Libya, despite a smaller-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stocks that dampened demand expectations. U.S. crude inventories dropped by 846,000 barrels, falling short of the anticipated 2.3 million-barrel draw.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Libya, are expected to keep oil markets volatile and could impact OPEC+ production strategies in the coming months. A prolonged supply disruption in Libya may limit oil price declines and provide OPEC+ more flexibility in adjusting supply levels, potentially boosting oil and natural gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.121, up 1.22%, and is currently holding above the pivotal $2.10 level. On the 4-hour chart, NG has found support near its 50-day EMA at $2.07, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend.

Immediate resistance is seen at $2.15, with further barriers at $2.23 and $2.30. On the downside, key support is located at $2.00, with subsequent levels at $1.94 and $1.88. The 200-day EMA at $2.16 indicates a significant resistance area that could cap gains.

As long as prices remain above the $2.10 pivot point, the bullish sentiment is likely to persist. However, a break below this level could trigger a swift decline toward the $2.00 support zone.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is trading at $74.76, up 0.45%, showing resilience near the $74.50 pivot point. On the 4-hour chart, WTI crude has formed a Tweezer Bottom pattern, suggesting strong support at the $74.50 level. This technical formation often indicates a potential reversal from bearish to bullish momentum.

Immediate resistance is $75.24, with subsequent hurdles at $76.12 and $77.56. The 50-day EMA at $75.09 is slightly above the current price, reinforcing near-term resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $76.56 offers a more significant ceiling.

If prices remain above $74.51, the bullish trend may persist, but a break below this level could trigger a sharp sell-off towards $73.79 and lower support levels.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Oil (UKOIL) is currently trading at $77.76, up 0.37%, navigating just below the pivotal $77.85 level. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is slightly under the 50-day EMA of $78.93, indicating potential near-term resistance. Immediate resistance is set at $78.54, with further obstacles at $79.28 and $80.12.

On the downside, support is close at $76.86, with additional layers at $76.28 and $75.61. The 200-day EMA at $80.15 suggests that breaking past $80 could be challenging.

If UKOIL holds above $77.85, a bullish trend may continue, but slipping below this pivot point could lead to increased selling pressure, potentially targeting the $76.86 support area.