Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: World Bank Predicts 6% Price Drop – A Bearish Outlook?

Market Overview

The natural gas and oil markets have softened as initial geopolitical fears ease, shifting focus back to an oversupply forecast. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a sharp decline, erasing its war premium as Middle Eastern conflict containment lessened concerns over supply disruptions.

Looking ahead, the World Bank projects a 6% drop in oil prices for 2024 due to rising global production, primarily from non-OPEC+ countries like Brazil and Canada.

This anticipated increase in supply, coupled with weak demand growth, could lead to the largest surplus since 2020, potentially pressuring prices further amid steady but subdued global consumption.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.91, slightly down by 0.38%, yet it’s holding above a key pivot point at $2.87. If prices can stay above this level, there’s room for a bullish push toward the immediate resistance at $2.92, with further targets at $3.00 and $3.06.

The 50-day EMA, sitting at $2.63, and the 200-day EMA at $2.53 both support a broader uptrend, suggesting buyers might step in at lower levels.

However, if prices slip below $2.87, we could see a sharper selloff targeting $2.79 or even $2.73. It’s a pivotal moment, and all eyes are on whether this level can hold to support a potential upside.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

USOIL is trading at $67.71, up 0.42% and hovering just above its pivot point of $67.53. If it maintains strength above this level, it could challenge immediate resistance at $68.18, with additional targets at $68.85 and $69.72, indicating room for a potential upward move.

The 50-day EMA at $67.98 suggests nearby support for further gains, but the 200-day EMA at $69.62 might act as a cap on the rally.

On the downside, a break below $67.53 could shift momentum, eyeing support at $66.89 and possibly $66.19. It’s a critical level to watch, as holding above $67.53 supports a bullish outlook while a drop could attract selling pressure.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL is trading at $75.91, up 1.91% in today’s session but just below its pivot point of $76.08. This level is pivotal; a break above it could spark a stronger upward move toward the next resistance at $76.53, with further targets at $77.17 and $77.68.

However, a downward trendline near $76.08 suggests a possible cap on gains, so traders are watching closely.

Immediate support sits at $75.43, and a dip below could lead to further declines to $74.97 or even $74.14. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs, both around $75.13, provide additional support for a potential bounce, but a decisive break above $76.08 would strengthen the bullish outlook.