Natural Gas News: Bearish Forecast Today as Futures Break Below 200-Day Moving Average

Natural Gas Futures Struggle Below Key Support as Demand Remains Soft

U.S. natural gas futures were under pressure early Monday, as traders reacted to bearish signals from both technical and fundamental fronts. Prices remained pinned below the crucial 200-day moving average at $3.085, suggesting sellers continue to control the market heading into May contract expiration.

At 13:04 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.076, down $0.038 or -1.22%.

Will Persistent Weak Demand Keep Prices Under Pressure?

Natural gas futures have now fallen for ten straight sessions, weighed down by mild spring temperatures and sluggish demand typical of the shoulder season.

Production remains stubbornly high, with Lower 48 dry gas output at 104.4 Bcf/day on Friday, up 3.8% year-over-year, according to BNEF. In contrast, Lower 48 gas demand was only 66.8 Bcf/day, down 7% from a year ago.

LNG exports were also lighter, with flows at 15.3 Bcf/day, a 3% week-over-week decline. These supply-demand imbalances continue to erode price support.

What Does the Latest Storage Data Signal for Prices?

The EIA reported an 88 Bcf storage build for the week ending April 18, exceeding expectations of 75 Bcf and topping the five-year average build of 58 Bcf. Total working gas in storage now stands at 1,934 Bcf, 44 Bcf below the five-year average but still within the historical range.

Despite a tighter year-over-year supply picture—storage levels are down 20.2% versus last year—the higher-than-expected injection and ongoing mild weather are keeping pressure on futures.

How Are Traders Reacting to Technical Levels?

With the market trading below the 200-day moving average, technical selling is reinforcing the bearish momentum. Daily charts suggest $2.376 is the next major support level if current downside pressure continues. While a short-covering rally could emerge after ten consecutive sessions of losses, it is unlikely to alter the broader downtrend unless fundamentals shift materially.

Market Forecast

Natural gas prices are expected to stay under pressure in the short term, with sellers maintaining control. A sustained break under $3.00 could open the door to a test of support near $2.376. Until there is a meaningful pick-up in demand or a production cutback, rallies are likely to be limited and short-lived.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.