Natural Gas News: Bearish Weather Forecast Weighs on Market as Futures Test Support

Natural Gas Futures Stagnate Near Key Technical Levels as Demand Outlook Softens

U.S. natural gas futures traded flat on Wednesday, hovering near a technical pivot point as bearish weather forecasts undercut otherwise supportive fundamentals. Traders are closely watching short-term resistance at $3.924 and long-term support at $3.790, with price action poised for a breakout in either direction.

At 14:13 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.857, up $0.017 or +0.44%.

Will Prices Break Higher or Retest Support?

April futures saw light volume ahead of Thursday’s contract expiration, inching lower after shedding 7.4 cents in Tuesday’s session. The selloff came as traders reacted to forecasts projecting light demand through the end of the month. If prices clear the $3.924 resistance, short-covering could drive a sharp move higher. Conversely, failure to hold the 50-day moving average near $3.790 risks a drop toward the recent bottom at $3.742, with a breakdown below that level potentially accelerating losses.

Weather-Driven Demand Remains Subdued

From March 24 to 30, U.S. weather patterns are expected to generate limited heating and cooling demand. Rain and snow will persist across parts of the country, but temperatures will remain mild overall—ranging from 30s to 60s in the north and 50s to 80s in the south. The forecast suggests low residential and commercial gas use, weakening near-term support for prices.

LNG and Production Provide a Floor—for Now

Despite soft demand, U.S. production and LNG feed gas flows remain supportive. LNG volumes continue to hold strong, and production has yet to show significant increases that would materially pressure supply-demand balances. These factors are helping to prevent a steeper drop in prices, at least for the moment.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

With fundamentals currently skewed by mild weather and the April contract nearing expiration, the market leans bearish in the short term. A failure to hold the 50-day moving average could unlock downside potential, especially if demand remains weak into early April.

While upside risk exists if technical resistance is breached, the weight of soft weather-driven consumption keeps near-term pressure on the downside. Traders should monitor both the $3.790 support level and updated demand models closely.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.