Natural Gas News: Futures Retreat as Profit-Taking Hits Post-Weather Rally

Natural Gas Futures Slip as Traders Shift Focus Beyond Cold Blast

U.S. natural gas futures are moving lower on Tuesday as traders weigh the supply impact of the ongoing polar vortex. While the market remains technically in an uptrend, recent price action suggests the anticipated cold snap has already been priced in. Traders are now looking ahead to early March forecasts, which could introduce a new direction for prices.

At 14:23 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.702, down $0.023 or -0.62%.

Is the Recent Rally Losing Momentum?

After gaining 41.6 cents last week, March natural gas futures saw early Tuesday losses. The overnight low touched $3.554, signaling some weakness after the strong pre-holiday run-up. A round of profit-taking following the Presidents Day weekend has likely contributed to the pullback.

Weather remains a key driver. NatGasWeather noted that both American and European weather models projected extreme cold from Monday through Saturday, with Arctic air bringing lows into the negative 10s and 20s, even reaching deep into Texas and the South. However, traders appear to be looking past the immediate cold spell and shifting attention toward potential warming trends in early March.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

The market remains technically supported, but there are signs of wavering momentum. A key pivot sits at $3.505—if prices break below this level, downside momentum could accelerate. Friday’s high of $3.801 now stands as a potential lower top, which could reinforce a bearish structure if selling pressure increases.

On the upside, a trade through $3.801 would indicate renewed strength. If enough buying emerges, the next upside target sits at $4.020. The 50-day moving average at $3.193 supports the intermediate-term bullish trend, while the 200-day moving average at $2.739 continues to guide the longer-term outlook.

Market Forecast: Short-Term Uncertainty, Longer-Term Bullish Bias

In the short term, natural gas futures are showing a mixed picture, with near-term resistance and profit-taking weighing on prices. However, the intermediate and long-term outlooks remain supportive, as technical levels continue to favor the bulls. Traders will be closely watching updated weather models and early March forecasts for the next major move. A break below $3.505 could spark further downside, while a move above $3.801 would signal renewed upside potential.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.