Natural Gas News: Storage Build Triggers Selloff as Charts Flash Warning Below $3.924

Natural Gas Futures Firm Slightly as Storage Build Pressures Market

U.S. natural gas futures edged higher Friday morning following Thursday’s sharp selloff, sparked by a surprise storage injection that signaled early-season softness in demand. The market recovered modestly after probing technical support but remains boxed in a well-defined range, with traders eyeing key levels for the next directional move.

At 14:10 GMT, Natural Gas futures are trading $3.985, up $0.010 or +0.25%.

How Did the First Storage Build Impact Market Sentiment?

Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed a 9 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending March 14 — the first build of the season and a bearish surprise. Most market participants were expecting a modest withdrawal or near-zero balance. The addition was likely driven by strong renewable output, with elevated wind and solar generation reducing gas-fired power demand.

This early-season build underscores the reality of reduced late-winter heating needs and sets a bearish tone for the shoulder season. Total working gas in storage now stands at 1,707 Bcf — 624 Bcf below last year and 190 Bcf under the five-year average. While these deficits are notable, they’re losing influence in the face of structurally weaker demand and mild weather forecasts.

Are Prices Holding Key Technical Support Levels?

Despite Thursday’s 27.2-cent drop in the prompt month, futures held above pivot support near $3.924 and attempted to stabilize early Friday. Technical charts show a rangebound setup, with resistance capped at $3.322 and downside risk intensifying if $3.924 breaks. A clean breach could trigger a drop to the 50-day moving average at $3.767, where some traders expect a bounce. Failure there may open the door to $3.350.

The technical setup suggests a market still trying to find direction, but vulnerable to further weakness unless demand signals improve. Range compression could soon lead to increased volatility.

What’s the Demand Outlook from Weather Models?

The latest weather models show light national demand for at least the next seven days. While some systems will bring cooler air and precipitation to the eastern and western U.S., much of the country is forecast to experience seasonal to above-normal temperatures. With highs ranging from the 50s to 80s across most regions, residential and commercial heating demand is expected to remain tepid.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Bias

With the first injection of the season arriving earlier than usual, weather-driven demand staying weak, and strong technical resistance capping upside moves, the short-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish. Unless temperatures drop significantly or LNG export volumes provide a surprise lift, prices are likely to test lower technical levels in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.