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Natural Gas News: Supply, Weather, and Forecasts: What’s Driving Futures Lower Today?
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Key Points:
- Natural gas futures test $3.563 but retreat to $3.168; key support levels could determine market direction.
- Colder weather forecasts for Nov 28-Dec drive demand expectations, but warmer model updates stall the rally.
- EIA reports a 3 Bcf draw in storage, with inventories 239 Bcf above the five-year average, weighing on prices.
In this article:
Will Natural Gas Prices Sustain Recent Gains?
U.S. natural gas futures retreated Friday after briefly touching a multi-month high of $3.563, just shy of the October 4 peak at $3.573. Following this rally, prices reversed to test key Fibonacci support at $3.168. A break below this level could accelerate selling toward a support cluster near the 50-day moving average at $3.057 and the 50% retracement level at $3.044.
On the upside, resistance levels include the 200-day moving average at $3.332 and the October high of $3.573. Price action suggests the market is poised to form a closing price reversal top, often a precursor to short-term corrections. This shift reflects trader sentiment that upcoming colder weather may already be priced in amid strong supply levels.
At 14:13 GMT, Natural Gas futures are trading $3.187, down $0.152 or -4.55%.
How Is Weather Impacting Demand Expectations?
Natural gas prices soared earlier this week on forecasts for a colder-than-normal pattern between November 28 and early December. NatGasWeather reported that frosty air in the northern U.S. is expected to elevate national demand during this period. Overnight weather model updates, however, introduced a slightly warmer outlook, sparking Friday’s pullback.
Despite the moderation, heating degree day (HDD) data from GFS and EC models remain well above normal, supporting expectations for robust heating demand. If subsequent weather updates restore a colder bias, price recovery could be swift.
Are Storage Levels Adding Downward Pressure?
The latest EIA storage report showed a small draw of 3 Bcf, leaving total working gas at 3,969 Bcf as of November 15. Current inventories are 141 Bcf higher than last year and 239 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,730 Bcf. While this drawdown was less bearish than the forecasted 2 Bcf injection, elevated supply levels continue to weigh on the market, underscoring the need for sustained demand increases to drive further price rallies.
What’s the Market Outlook?
In the short term, natural gas faces bearish risks if support at $3.168 fails, potentially opening the door to further declines toward $3.044–$3.057. Conversely, colder weather forecasts could cap losses and reignite bullish momentum if resistance at $3.332 and $3.573 is breached. For now, ample supply and slightly moderating weather suggest cautious sentiment, tilting the market toward a bearish outlook.
About the Author
James Hyerczykauthor
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.
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