Natural Gas News: Weather Points to Demand Drop; Downside Risk Under 50-Day MA

Natural Gas Bulls Defend Critical Support Level

Natural gas futures are moving slightly higher on Wednesday as traders respect the key pivot price support at $3.924. The May Nymex gas futures contract ticked up following Tuesday’s substantial 16.8-cent decline, with market participants assessing competing fundamentals.

At 13:50 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.021, up $0.070 or +1.77%.

The 50-day moving average at $3.841 has been guiding the market higher since early December, serving as a critical intermediate trend indicator. A sustained move below this level would strongly signal sellers taking control. Should downward pressure intensify enough to breach last week’s low at $3.732, the market could accelerate to the downside with $3.350 emerging as the major target.

Weather Shifts Driving Price Volatility

Weather patterns continue to influence price action, with recent volatility directly tied to forecast changes. According to NatGasWeather, weekend weather data initially trended colder, triggering a price rally from Sunday into Monday. However, warmer trends over the past 24 hours have since pressured prices. Current forecasts show moderate demand for the next seven days but lighter demand for the 8-15 day period following these warmer trends.

For April 1-7, weather systems will track across the western and northern United States with rain, snow, and temperatures ranging from 30s to 60s. Meanwhile, the southern and eastern regions will experience mild-to-warm conditions with highs from mid-50s to 80s until cooling late weekend through early next week as a late-season cool front moves through.

Tariff News Could Spark Money Flow Shifts

Traders are also positioning ahead of expected tariff news from President Trump later today. Gelber & Associates noted that in recent weeks, stock market investors concerned about inflation risks from tariffs have redirected some capital into commodities, including natural gas, creating additional price support outside of traditional fundamentals.

Technical Setup Points to Breakout Potential

The natural gas market appears balanced at current levels with technical support holding for now. The price action suggests traders are cautious, waiting for clearer directional cues from either weather patterns or broader economic factors. The immediate focus remains on whether support at $3.924 will hold or if selling pressure will drive prices through the critical 50-day moving average, potentially triggering a more substantial correction toward $3.350.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.