Natural Gas News: Will Mild Weather Keep Futures Subdued in the Coming Week?

Weather Uncertainty and High Storage Keep Prices Subdued

Natural gas futures closed the week at $2.823, following a weekly high of $3.020 and a low of $2.688. The market struggled to gain momentum as mild weather and high storage levels continued to weigh on prices, with traders closely monitoring weather forecasts for potential demand shifts.

Will Mild Weather Continue to Suppress Demand?

The week saw mild temperatures dominate the southern and eastern U.S., curbing heating demand. NatGasWeather confirmed light-to-very-light short-term demand due to above-average temperatures across major population centers. Cooler weather in the western and northern U.S. generated only modest demand, insufficient to offset the broader bearish influence of mild conditions elsewhere. Conflicting weather models further clouded sentiment, with the Global Forecast System (GFS) projecting significantly colder weather than the European model (EC), leaving traders uncertain about late-November heating demand​​.

Will Elevated Storage Levels Support Lower Prices?

Elevated storage levels added bearish pressure throughout the week. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 42 billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection, bringing total inventories to 3,974 Bcf. This level exceeds the five-year average by 228 Bcf and last year’s levels by 158 Bcf, ensuring ample supply to meet current demand. These robust storage levels reduced the urgency for price support, especially in the absence of strong weather-driven demand​​.

What Do Key Technical Levels Suggest for the Market?

According to the weekly chart, trader reaction to $2.767—the midpoint of the two-week range of $2.514 to $3.020—will likely determine the market’s direction in the coming week. A sustained move above $2.767 would signal buying momentum, with the potential to drive prices toward the key resistance level at $3.044. Conversely, failure to hold above $2.767 could result in further declines, targeting the support range of $2.585 to $2.514​.

What Lies Ahead for Natural Gas Prices?

The near-term outlook remains bearish as mild temperatures and high storage levels dominate. A move below $2.767 would likely prompt additional selling pressure, with prices potentially testing lower support levels. However, a confirmed cold weather trend could spur buying interest and a rally toward $3.044. For now, traders remain focused on weekly technical levels and evolving weather data for signs of a shift in market conditions.