Natural Gas Price Forecast: Advance Trend, Eyes $3.51 Upside Target

Natural gas began to advance on Thursday with a rally to an eight-day high of $3.43 before an intraday pullback kicked in. Although a minor indication, the $3.39 price level was a peak in January 2024. It was tested again as resistance during the first advance from the recent $2.99 swing low (A) and resistance was seen around the price level.

If natural gas can close above that price today, it will be a slightly more bullish closing than if Thursday’s trading session ends below that level. Nonetheless, today’s range of $3.30 to $3.43 provides near term support and resistance, respectively.

Next Upside Target is $3.51

The first upside target is shown on the chart at $3.51 to $3.52. It starts with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and is followed by the 50-Day MA. Note that the price represented by the 50-Day line may change slightly before it is reached. Also, be aware of the internal downtrend line near to today’s price action.

Although it may not provide a clear price to gauge from, it can help as a guide. The next more significant potential resistance zone above the 50-Day line is around the 20-Day MA, currently at $3.67. Notice that the 20-Day line has been falling recently and has entered the price range discussed previously from the $3.64 peak in 2023, and the 50% retracement at $3.67.

Rising ABCD Pattern Points to $3.58

An interim upside target has been added to the chart since as of today there is a higher swing high for the developing ABCD pattern (light blue) starting from the recent $2.99 low (A). The initial target from the patten is $3.58, approximately halfway between the 50-Day and 20-Day MAs. Further up is the 127.2% extended target from the pattern at $3.69. Therefore, that higher price target can be added to the price range around the 20-Day MA.

Wide Range Week Consolidation

Since this week’s price action is contained with a wide range from last week, it would not be surprising to see natural gas continue to slowly advance and fill more of that range. Last week’s range goes from a low of $2.99 to a high of $3.83. Last week’s high marks the next higher potential target area above the $3.69 price level.

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