Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Targets 50-Day Support

Bearish Breakdown Confirmed

Natural gas broke down from Monday’s low on Tuesday, hitting $3.82 and falling further. The high reached $4.10, but the decline sliced through the 10-day and 20-day averages, with sellers dominating and pushing toward the day’s bottom. Trading stays weak, likely closing in the lower range and confirming short-term bearish bias.

Resistance at Prior Highs

Last week’s $4.21 high formed a lower swing high, testing mid-June’s $4.23 interim peak. Short-term weakness suggests another test of support near the 200-day average at $3.61 and recent swing low at $3.60.

Upside Breakout Path

A decisive rally above $4.21 targets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4.47, provided $4.23 holds. An early strength signal comes on a rally above last week’s $4.14 high.

Support Confluence Ahead

A break below $3.83 could trigger a weekly bearish reversal, with the 50-day line at $3.55 as key support. This average aligns with the short-term uptrend, rising above the long-term uptrend line and lower boundary of a small rising channel, forming a significant support zone. The 50-day at $3.52 marks the lower end. A bounce is expected here given the confluence.

Channel Dynamics

Last week’s $4.14 high tested resistance at the top rising channel line. Today’s bearish reversal makes the lower channel line a potential target, increasing odds of reaching the 50-day line. Support near the 200-day is bolstered by two rising trendlines, one declining, and the 50-day average.

Outlook

The $3.82 close decides—below it opens $3.55, above it defends structure. A short downward trendline, confirmed at today’s high, signals new highs if broken. The channel target and support confluence favor a bounce at $3.55—watch for reversal strength or further downside.

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