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Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Patterns Signal Upside Potential

By:
Bruce Powers
Published: Nov 5, 2024, 21:34 GMT+00:00

Natural gas’s pullback after a bullish reversal may lead to upside potential if key resistance levels near 3.02 are cleared.

In this article:

Following a strong performance on Monday, natural gas sees profit taking on Tuesday and a pullback to a low of 2.65. Nothing unusual and to be anticipated given the sharp bullish key reversal day that completed yesterday with a strong daily close near the highs of the day. Earlier in today’s trading session, a new higher daily high was reached, and it was followed by a pullback. Nonetheless, yesterday’s price action may have been a precursor to additional strengthening.

A screenshot of a graph Description automatically generated

Bullish Clues

In addition to the bullish key reversal day (open below prior day’s low and close above prior day’s high), the 20-Day MA was successfully tested as support earlier during Monday’s trading session. That was the first test of the line as support since the advance on October 29. Further, notice that support was tested at an initial downtrend line (blue dots) that starts from the 2023 peak and connects with the January swing high from this year. In other words, price levels are being reclaimed and strength is confirmed on a subsequent test of previous resistance as support.

Above 2.92 Triggers Next Breakout

Recent bullish signs point to a potential upside breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern in natural gas. An initial upside breakout triggers above the recent high of 2.92. However, a stronger signal would be given on a move above the recent swing high of 3.02, and then above the swing high of 3.16. The first upside target zone following a 3.02 breakout is from 3.35 to 3.45.

That price range begins with an initial target for a near-term rising ABCD pattern (D) in purple. Then, there is a previous swing high where resistance was seen in the past, at 3.39. Finally, the price range ends at 3.45, which is the target from a larger ascending ABCD pattern (orange) that incorporates the August swing low. Since there are several price levels identifying the resistance zone, there is a real potential of it being reached if demand in natural gas continues to strengthen.

Weekly Pause?

On the weekly time frame natural gas is trading inside the price range from last week. It will continue to do so unless there is an upside breakout above last week’s high of 2.92 or a drop below the low of 2.27. Given the relatively large range, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this week complete as an inside week. That would set up a potential inside week breakout for next week.

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About the Author

Bruce boasts over 20 years in financial markets, holding senior roles such as Head of Trading Strategy at Relentless 13 Capital and Corporate Advisor at Chronos Futures. A CMT® charter holder and MBA in Finance, he's a renowned analyst and media figure, appearing on 150+ TV business shows.

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