Natural Gas Price Forecast: Downtrend Persists

Natural gas dropped below key potential support around the 200-Day MA on Wednesday and closed below it. Today, a minor new trend low of 2.41 was reached earlier in the trading session before buyers stepped in and supported a rally to the day’s high of 2.48.

That high successfully tested the 200-Day MA as resistance. In other words, shortly after the 200-Day line was reached, a pullback kicked in and drove the price of natural gas back down. At the time of this writing, trading continues near the lows of the day and the low from earlier in the session remains at risk of being broken to the downside.

Bearish Trend Price Behavior

In a downtrend, previous price areas of support can be areas of resistance on the way down, before the dominant downtrend resumes. That happened today relative to the 200-Day line. Also, similar price behavior occurred on Wednesday as well. A daily close below yesterday’s low of 2.415 will confirm a continuation of the falling trend and will put lower price targets on the horizon.

Two Lower Price Zones Starting with 2.24

There are two lower target zones identified on the chart by the confluence of price levels derived from Fibonacci analysis and previous price structure showing support or resistance. Previous swing highs and lows present the more obvious price levels to watch. The first is from around 2.37 to 2.34, and the second shows up from around 2.24 to 2.18. Given the signs of sustained downward momentum, it is looking like the first price zone will likely be reached before the current retracement finds support that stops the decline and leads to at least a bounce.

Bearish Weekly Pattern

Also, keep an eye on the weekly chart heading into the end of the week. This week is the third week down with lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows. Natural gas is currently on track to close near the lows of the week’s range, which would indicate that sellers remain in charge going into the weekend. Each of the prior three weeks ended in the red and near the lows of the week. They reflect clear and distinct selling. Since there is no sign yet that the retracement may be close to complete, the next lower target zone becomes likely to be reached at a minimum.

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