Natural Gas Price Forecast: Eyes 3.64 Peak After Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

Natural gas gained on Thursday to challenge the recent high of 3.56. The high for the day at the time of this writing was 3.56. Subsequently, it pulled back intraday but remains poised to close relatively strong, in the upper third of the day’s trading range.

This puts natural gas in a prime position to break out above 3.56 to new trend highs. However, given the current day’s price range a close below 3.42, the halfway point, would indicate a weak close. Maybe that means natural takes a rest for a day or two before another challenge to the highs.

Breakout Above 3.56 is Bullish

Nonetheless, a decisive advance above 3.56 triggers a continuation of the bull trend. And a new portion of the trend has likely recently begun, following the upside breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern on November 20. The recent retracement found support around the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and the pattern breakout level of 3.02, which eventually lead to an improvement in upward momentum as seen the past couple of days.

Moreover, a weekly bullish reversal triggered this week on a rally above last week’s high of 3.28, and the week should end above the high, thereby confirming the reversal. This is classic bullish behavior given the subsequent rebound from the 2.98 swing low.

First 3.64, then 4.06?

A decisive rally above the 3.56 high puts natural gas on track to target the 2023 high of 3.64, and likely continue to rise from there. The high is the top of the triangle pattern and a rally above the top of the pattern would provide another piece of bullish evidence if triggered. There are several higher targets thereafter as marked on the chart. The more significant and higher price target is up around a price range from 4.39 to 4.56. That range begins with prior monthly support and ends with a 50% retracement level.

Higher Targets

On the way towards 4.39, if natural gas continues to strengthen, the first area to watch for resistance above the 3.64 peak is 4.06. That is where a rising ABCD pattern (purple) hits its 161.8% extended target. However, that will likely be a minor level heading towards a price zone around a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 3.85. Close by is the 127.2% extension of a large rising ABCD pattern (orange) at 3.87. Watch the price levels together as a range.

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