Natural Gas Price Forecast: Eyes Highest Weekly Closing Price in 25 Months

Natural gas continued to strengthen on Friday following the breakout above the recent trend high of 3.74 (B). It established a new higher daily high of 4.02 and a higher low of 3.69. The day looks likely to end above the 3.74 high and in a bullish position in the top third of the day’s price range. If demand remains strong into the close, natural gas may end at its highest weekly closing price since December 2022. That would be a bullish sign.

Strong Weekly Performance

Nevertheless, the current rally is occurring inside last week’s price range. It shows a long red candle with a weak close near the lows of the week. This week’s bullish price action counters some of last week’s bearish price action and shows strength. But since an inside week is a form of consolidation on that time scale, trading could proceed in a choppy fashion for a while longer. At least that seems to be a risk. A new weekly high closing price this week will go a long way towards further confirming bullish daily signals.

4.20 High May be Challenged

The price structure of higher swing highs and higher swing lows remains intact for the bull trend. Recent bullish signals indicate a possible challenge to resistance around the current trend high of 4.20. If upward momentum can be maintained, then the 4.20 high could be exceeded. A rising parallel trend channel defines the vibration of price in the larger bull trend that began from the 2024 low of 1.55.

The current shorter-term uptrend, that began from the October swing low, defines a smaller internal trend within a large uptrend price pattern. Since support was successfully tested around the internal uptrend line and 20-Day MA, the road may be clear for the larger bullish pattern to exert its influence. However, gold could go to a new trend high yet still find resistance around the top channel line.

Long-Term Patterns are Bullish

In the big picture, gold triggered another bullish reversal of the long-term downtrend on a rally above the October 2023 swing high of 3.64 recently. That breakout followed an earlier bull breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. So, the current short-term advance is supported by the larger bullish price patterns.

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