Natural Gas Price Forecast: Finds Support Amid Rising Trend Channels

Natural gas pulled back to a low of 3.74 on Tuesday before finding support that was followed by an intraday rally. The highest traded price for the day was 4.06, which was a successful test of resistance around a top channel line (dashed) for a rising trend channel. The respective channel is the smaller of the two rising channels that are marked on the chart.

Key Support Shows at 3.67 to 3.64

A key support zone starts is indicated around the confluence of several indicators. It starts with the 50% retracement at 3.67 and includes the 20-Day MA around 3.66. However, the more significant price level is 3.64. That was the peak in 2023, and it created a lower swing high for the downtrend and subsequently led to a decline to the 2024 trend low of 1.52.

If natural gas can continue to trade above the bottom of the range at 3.64 it looks to have a good chance of retaining the near-term rising trend structure. Otherwise, a sustained decline below 3.64 heads to test support of the 50-Day MA at 3.29. If that level fails to lead to a bullish reversal, then 3.02 becomes a target, followed by the top boundary line for a large symmetrical triangle formation.

Bearish Candle on Monday

Both Monday’s rally and the prior swing high at 4.20 from December 30 found resistance around the top line of the larger trend channel (solid blue). Therefore, that top line continues to mark areas where resistance may be seen if natural gas is able to again strengthen and test recent highs. There is a pattern like a bearish wedge when considering the rising lower solid trendline that coincides with the January 3 swing low at 3.33. The top line of the wedge would be the dashed blue line connecting the 3.02 swing high.

Hit ABCD Target

It is interesting to note that Monday’s advance completed a rising ABCD pattern (purple) at 4.33 before strong resistance was encountered following the 4.37 high. A quick bearish intraday reversal and weak daily close followed. The ABCD pattern is measuring price symmetry of the two upswings in the pattern. The AB leg is the first leg up and the CD leg is the second. Once the two swings show the same appreciation in price, the potential for a pivot, resistance in this case, may improve.

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