Natural Gas Price Forecast – Nat Gas Continues to Accumulate Buyers

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 29.09.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets experienced an increase exceeding 1% during Thursday’s trading session, marked by substantial fluctuations and significant market noise. Despite the erratic movements, there’s a discernible upward pressure in the market, with the capability to drive it well above the $3.00 level. The 20-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA are merging around this point, serving as a potential magnet for price.

A daily closure above the $3.00 level could trigger the subsequent upward phase, particularly with winter approaching and the expected surge in demand. Moreover, supply concerns, especially in Europe this winter, are pivotal factors affecting the market. Recent geopolitical developments, like France’s exit from West Africa and the ongoing stabilization of the coup d’état in Niger, have profound effects on the trans-African pipeline and the entire supply chain.

The market is slowly building pressure, with a more extensive “rounding bottom” underway. A surge above the 200-Day EMA might set the stage for reaching the $5.00 level. Under the prevailing market conditions, this scenario appears plausible over time. The advisable approach is to progressively augment positions over time, maneuvering through the inherent market noise and exploiting the cyclical trade advantages. Shorting the natural gas markets is currently inadvisable due to the existing seasonal patterns, and the emphasis should be on long-term investment, anticipating considerable profits in the forthcoming months.

Currently, the natural gas market is a fusion of volatility and potential, with several elements dictating its course. The upcoming winter season, intertwined with international incidents and supply apprehensions, is crucial in shaping the market’s path. A prudent and gradual investment strategy is vital, circumventing early substantial investments and utilizing the cyclical attributes of the trade.

At the end of the day, the natural gas markets are navigating through a terrain filled with disturbances and potential upward trends. The convergence of the 200-Day EMA around the $3.00 level, the rise in seasonal demand, and international supply determinants are sculpting the market environment. Because of this, I am invested in natural gas, but with the choppiness, it is hard to have a massive leveraged position at this point. I am using the ETF UNG in the US, but CFD markets could be used as a proxy also.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.