Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues to Recover

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 03-01-2024

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have rallied rather viciously to kick off the trading week, gapping higher, showing signs of life as we have jumped over the 50-day EMA. Keep in mind that the markets were sold off pretty aggressively last year, so I wonder whether or not this isn’t just a little bit of a reaction to that type of noisy behavior. Ultimately, I do think that there are going to be the occasional rallies, but you also have to keep in mind that the futures markets are already pricing in February.

We may have one more big shot higher, but after that, you start to think about March, April, May, times of the year that natural gas demand tends to drop. There’s also concerns about the economy, but the idea that perhaps the Federal Reserve may cut a couple of times in 2024 has people thinking that maybe there will be more energy demand. Either way, I think at best, natural gas markets are going to be range-bound this year as the winter was a complete bust. It really looked like it was going to take off there for a while and then it fell apart.

The 200 day EMA sits just below the $3 level, which I think is a major barrier. Underneath, I think the $2.50 level is more or less going to be fair value for the entirety of the year. We’re a little bit above there, probably get a little bit of a rally, and then we’ll drift back towards that level. Anything below $2.50 starts to look at $2.33, possibly even as low as $2, which I think is your floor in the market.

As we are just above fair value, short-term pullbacks could be bought into, but you have to be very nimble and recognize that natural gas markets are unpredictable at best as they tend to move on to latest weather reports coming out of the northeastern part of the United States. Unless you are finely attuned to the overall weather patterns in places like Boston, New York, and DC, it will be a difficult market at times.

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