Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Look for Buyers

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 09.11.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have fallen to kick off the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to dance around the 50-Day EMA. Keep in mind that the market is trying to find some type of buying pressure underneath the turn the markets around, and therefore I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we try to get back to the 200-Day EMA.

Recently, the market has witnessed quite a bit of warm temperatures in the United States, which of course has a major influence on the natural gas markets, but the warm temperatures will be short-lived. Ultimately, I do think it’s probably only a matter of time before the demand starts to pick up again, and we get the cyclical trade as per usual. This has been a reasonable pullback, and one that is offered a bit of value. Keep in mind that natural gas had been up 40% since the bottom, so this was probably needed.

All the usual reasons for natural gas to go higher this time of the year of course, are in full effect, and we also have to keep in mind that the European Union has a severe issue when it comes to getting enough natural gas, and that will have a major influence on pricing in the United States. While traders tend to focus on short-term trading and perhaps more importantly short-term weather patterns, the reality is that we have two groups in the market at the moment, those who are trading for the winter, and those who are trading on the next couple of days. Natural gas is a very difficult market for retail traders to hang onto because you have to have a high level of wheather information for the United States, specifically the northeastern part of the United States and other areas such as the Midwest. Unless you are a meteorologist, it’s a difficult market to say the least.

Keep in mind that this price you are looking at is based on the Henry Hub contract, which of course is American. That being said, the Americans will be exporting a ton of natural gas to the EU this winter, so it should eventually bring buyers in. This is why I am using positions that have no leverage whatsoever and have chosen the ETF market. CFD markets can be used as a proxy, because you can dial down your position size.

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